ATP Tennis Betting: Federer takes on Baghdatis

Indian Wells, California – World No.1 Roger Federer takes a 6-0 lifetime edge against Marcos Baghdatis into their third round encounter, and with it outrageously favourable odds to nick another into the win column against the Cypriot and advance into the fourth round.

Federer is making his first appearance since winning the Aussie Open late in January. Therefore, you can imagine the stir and excitement his return to the game is making this week in Indian Wells.

It doesn’t help though that he has been less than convincing so far. His second round match against Victor Hanescu showed some the same lack of focus we have witnessed on occasion in the last few years. He dropped his first-ever set against Hanescu and needed to go to three before dispatching the Romanian.

Some might point to the fact that he looked a bit match-rusty and others would point to the fact that he had been ill during his downtime and because of that, he was off form. But the why is not important. Fact is Federer’s matches are no longer the master class spectacle that we used to see on a regular basis and although we might see that from him from time to time, still we should start getting used to these less than exciting performances.

Question: is it cause for concern this week. Better yet, does it give Baghdatis a better shot at accomplishing something he has never done before: beat Federer? If he does, you can bet he will be a national hero in Cypress and there will be a parade in his honour, maybe even a stamp made to commemorate the moment.

Tennis Betting Line:

Roger Federer -4½ -120 -1400 20½ O -115 U -125
Marcos Baghdatis +4½ -120 +650 20½ O -115 U -125

Match Time: 10:30 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 16, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Roger Federer takes a -1400 price tag into his third round encounter. Tennis betting fans cannot be faulted for taking that as an endorsement to bet on him. Of course, there is little money to be had in those odds so for Federer backers the value plays will be on his performance. We have mentioned his concerning form at Indian Wells so it might be a better strategy to take Baghdatis on the spread at + 4 ½ -120 and maybe even push for the higher totals at Over 20 ½ -115.

Of course, it was but a match and the first match of the tournament. Federer does work his way into match form during tournaments so he could very well come out in top form tonight. This would make the – 4 ½ -120 the correct option. Note how the bookies are offering both spreads on the same odds. It seems they are not sure which Federer will come out tonight, as are we.

Having said that I don’t know the match will be in Federer’s hands entirely. Baghdatis has lost often enough to Federer he might be done with losing to him altogether. At his odds of + 650, the bookies certainly don’t think so but I do in spite of these odds. Baghdatis has had encouraging moments this season, winning Sydney one of them. He is in better form than we have seen in a while – since his runner-up finish to Federer at Melbourne in fact four years ago.

But Federer is not the same and neither is Baghdatis. Since then several unlikely players have gotten the better of Federer – Mardy Fish, Julien Benneteau and Radek Stepanek – of the unlikely sort. Why not Baghdatis.

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