ATP Tennis Betting: Tsonga and Melzer aim for fourth round
by Nila Amerova
Indian Wells, California – Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Jurgen Melzer feature in afternoon action at the BNP Paribas Open. Tsonga and Melzer will be looking to make a fourth round appointment at the expense of Albert Montanes and Simon Greul, two surprising players to have punched above their weight class to reach the third round.
Montanes received a favourable section of the draw; therein lies his fortune. Greul on the other hand dumped tourney outside favourite Gael Monfils in the second round.
Tsonga and Melzer are favourites to advance and if the markets were to be taken at face value, both victories are expected to be straightforward. Indian Wells has proved to be anything but straightforward as the seeded casualties on both the men and women’s side of the proceedings mount.
Could there be surprising results in these two matches? Here is a look at the action currently available at BetUS Sportsbook.
Tennis Betting Line:
Jo Wilfried Tsonga -5½ -105 -1200 20 O -110 U -130
Albert Montanes +5½ -135 +600 20 O -110 U -130
Match Time: 05:30 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 16, 2010
Tennis Betting Verdict: Tsonga enters this match as the whopping -1200 favourite while Montanes is significantly disadvantaged at +600. According to the bookies Tsonga is your man. The Frenchman has all the on paper edge to support this cast, including a 2-0 lifetime mark against Montanes.
Tsonga is 9-54 on the season with semis in Melbourne and Marseille. His only hiccup a second round finish in Dubai to Ljubicic. Montanes, on the other hand, is 9-5 on the season; on a worker-like approach to the term with six tournaments behind him already. His highlights: semis in Auckland and Buenos Aires.
Tennis Free Picks: given everything, there is to know about these players Tsonga comes up with the huge edge and that makes him the likely bet in the market. For Montanes to win he would have to play a big match. There is little to suggest he can and that makes him a risky bet at +600.
He however is a good play on the spread at + 5 ½ -135 – the idea is that he will account well. I fancy the Over 20 at -110 on the totals as such.
Tennis Betting Line:
Simon Greul +3½ -125 +225 22½ O -110 U -130
Jurgen Melzer -3½ -115 -350 22½ O -110 U -130
Match Time: 05:30 PM Eastern Time Tuesday March 16, 2010
Tennis Betting Verdict: The discrepancy between the favourite and the underdog in this match is less than it could be, with Greul listed at +225 and Melzer at -350. The consideration on Greul’s odds is more a function of his effort against Monfils, which was a great feat, indeed; although Monfils had a hand in his own loss, methinks. He let a first set lead slip through his fingers.
This is not to take away from Greul’s win and he deserves all the kudos for outlasting Monfils. Just saying if Monfils were more focused the outcome might have been different. This brilliantly segues into my next thought: Melzer can be unfocused at times as well.
As such, Greul is not without a shot in this match. I would even go to say he is the value bet here. Melzer should win and I get that but I cannot help but think Greul can take it to him and even take it away from him.
Tennis Free Picks: Melzer at -350 is the popular bet and it is a well-priced play as well. Greul is the riskier bet at +225 but he isn’t priced out of the market so there is a conceivable shot he would win this match. If we don’t agree here, we can at least agree it should be a tight affair.
Therefore the spread at + 3 ½ -125 on Greul is the attractive bet, as is the Over 22 ½ -110.
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