Indian Wells Tennis Betting: Murray vs. Almagro

Indian Wells, California – Andy Murray will draw from the depths of his fiery Scottish being to avoid the upset bug that is plaguing the BNP Paribas Open when he takes on Nicolas Almagro in the fourth round.

Many have Andy Murray as the short-odds-on favourite to win the title, over world No.2 Novak Djokovic (the highest seed alive in the tournament) and world No.3 Rafael Nadal (the defending champion). You can imagine what a shocker it would be if Andy Murray were to follow in Roger Federer’s footsteps tonight.

Or will it? Be a shocker I mean. Murray and Almagro are 1-1 head-to-head lifetime so in terms of how they stack up the odds are 50/50 either would advance. Of course, Murray has the more recent win and the more relevant win on hard courts. That gives him the upper hand here. There is also the significant ranking edge over Almagro to consider. Murray is world No.4, Almagro world No.40.

Almagro has been impressive lately; I particularly like the manner in which he conducts himself on court these days. Almagro has the look of a player that believes. His game has improved in proportion to that belief. He always had the game he just never seemed to believe in himself so much. That is huge and could have a direct impact on the outcome of this match. Tennis aficionados will tell you the match is decided in the locker room most times. There is a difference when a player leaves the locker room believing he can win and when a player comes out full of doubt.

Tennis Betting Line:

Andrew Murray -4½ -115 -800 20½ O -135 U -105
Nicolas Almagro +4½ -125 +425 20½ O -135 U -105

First Set Line: Andrew Murray -500 Nicolas Almagro +300

Match time: 12:30 AM Eastern Time Thursday March 18, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Murray is the solid favourite trading at -800 to win outright and there is no doubt in my mind most tennis bettors will side with him even if the odds are pricey. I can’t argue with this trend because there are many things about Murray that support this trend.

I would maintain, however, that Almagro is a value bet at +425 to mastermind the upset. More so than most would think. The way he has played and how he has conducted himself in big matches against some heavy hitters this season leads me to believe he has a shot against Murray. At the very least, he is a good play on the spread if you don’t agree with me at +4 ½ -125 – the bookies favoured outcome.

: Almagro in three sets

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