in Tennis Free Picks

Who would have seriously thought two weeks ago that, with only a few hours to go before the final round at the Australian Open, we would be discussing Serena Williams’ odds to win the title? Seriously, those of you who bet on the “dangerous floater” Serena Williams, tipped at +1600 at the start of the tournament, must be patting yourselves on the back, preening with delight, as you are one win away from a big payout! Well, good for you! However, you are not there yet!

On the other hand, those of you who had Maria Sharapova at +200 in the final should not pout too much! Even if it will not be as much of a monetary landslide, you are also one win away from a potential payout!

But before everyone jumps ahead to the trophy ceremony, we are still one bet away from crowning the winner, so sit tight and let us break down this head-to-head matchup!

For Serena fans, the odds of her winning this matchup are surprisingly still against her, and that (+1600) win is not going to come quite as easily!  Despite coming back to women’s tennis with a vengeance, defying all the odds against her, Serena Williams is still the underdog with a price tag of +160 in this head-to-head matchup. This means you have to risk $100 to make $160, almost doubling your initial bet if she pulls of the upset. Nice!

Alternatively, pre-tournament favorite Maria Sharapova, valued at -220, is still favored on this line, meaning you would have to risk $220 on the Russian gem to win $100. Perhaps not the most appealing bet, but the oddsmakers are clearly confident that she has a pretty good chance of defeating Serena Williams.

So where does the bettor put his money on this final Australian Open matchup? Do you pick the underdog that could double your profits? Or do you go with the ‘safe’ favorite? Tough choice!

Certainly, no one expected Serena Williams - in her first Grand Slam event following knee surgery and missing almost half of last season - to cash in on her underdog status and roar past three top 20 players, to arrive at the final round.

Pre-tournament predictions had Serena Williams’ fitness under the microscope and, with just one look, you might have echoed those questions as well, hence the hefty +1600. Visibly overweight and seemingly unprepared at the start of the tournament, she did not look like the fit Serena Williams of two years ago. However, fast forward two weeks and six matches, and the seven-time Grand Slam champion is once again at center court on the last day of competition.

So the question is: how did her fitness affect her? Should you still listen to these opinions and bet against her, or should you take heed of her comment against her doubters, “I love doubters. More than anything, what I love, besides obviously winning, is proving people wrong," and bet on her?

Are the stats an indication? On paper, she stacks up pretty well, leading the tournament with 57 aces and a serve speed that rips at an intimidating 202km/h! In comparison, Maria Sharapova follows behind Serena with 32 aces and a serve that rips just under Serena’s, at 190km/h.

Then again, Sharapova has 180 winners in the tournament compared to Serena’s 166. Sharapova has also double-faulted 28 times, and has a first serve-in % hovering around 60%, while Serena has only double-faulted 19 times with a first serve-in % at less than 60%.

Confused yet? Still not sure what to do?

Well, in the end, stats are all fine and dandy, and while Sharapova has a slight edge over Serena in her overall play, what they cannot measure is heart, and Serena Williams has a whole lot of heart!

Coming to this Australian Open, she was ranked 81st in the world, and now she is the third-lowest-ranked Grand Slam finalist in the Open era. She has defied all the odds against her and, by arriving to the final, she has made a mockery of her doubters. The 25-year old Serena Williams is back and her journey has only just begun.

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Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.