in Tennis Free Picks

As the semifinals round of the $600,000 Open Gaz de France tennis event wrapped up, all went down according to my predictions, giving me a 2-0 record for the semifinal round! Amelie Mauresmo proved ineffective against Nadia Petrova, and Lucie Safarova convincingly upset Justine Henin, continuing her winning streak against her ranked counterparts!

As the Finals of the Open Gaz de France dawn on the horizon, the matchup between the young Czech sensation and her Russian rival is met with some anticipation. So how will this final turn out? Here is my take on the head-to-head matchup between Lucie Safarova and Nadia Petrova!

Lucie Safarova +105 Nadia Petrova -145

Prediction: Clearly, World No. 7 Nadia Petrova enjoys the favorite status on this line against Lucie Safarova that ranks at 32nd in the WTA. Petrova also enjoys this favorite status as she leads in their head-to-head matchups 2-0. However, as Safarova has proven in this Open, as well as with her upset of Amelie Mauresmo in the Australian Open, she is not intimidated easily and has the ability to upset players that rank higher as well as players that lead in head-to-head matchups against her.

I really like Safarova in this matchup and considering her great run to the final, upsetting, No. 9 Nicole Vaidisova, No. 5 Svetlana Kuznetsova and No. 2 Justine Henin, her price tag of +105 would not be an outrageous bet! On the contrary, Safarova has proven in the last month that she is a player to be noticed on the WTA tour as she now leads in head-to-head matchups against some of the top 10 players, namely Amelie Mauresmo (1-0), Justine Henin (1-0) and Svetlana Kuznetsova (1-0). Against Nicole Vaidisova she was trailing 3-1 in their head-to-head records, but with her victory against Vaidisova in the second round she has improved the score to 3-2.

Moreover, Safarova has a proven record of coming back when she is down. Against Henin, playing in her first tournament of the year, Safarova fought back from 5-4 in the tiebreaker, winning three points in a row to clinch the first set. Again, in the second set, she found herself down 4-2, but the unseeded Safarova fought back with two service breaks to wrap up the match.

On the other hand Nadia Petrova arguably should be the sure bet. A proven top player, ranked in the top 10 and seeded fourth at the Open Gaz de France, Petrova by all accounts should breeze by Safarova with her powerful serve and strong return game. For those of you that put stock into stats and rankings then by all means throw your racket in with Petrova!

However, Safarova has proven time-and-time again that nothing is certain when she steps on to the court, and no favorite is safe from elimination simply by virtue of their rank or stats. And it is with that in mind that I cast my lot with Safarova, and pick her to complete one more final upset in the Open Gaz de France Final.

Pick: Safarova in two close sets!

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.

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