Aussie Open Prop Betting: Roger Federer vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Melbourne, Australia – Over and above the match tennis betting line on the Federer vs. Tsonga clash in the Aussie Open semis, tennis free picks to consider.

Set Betting

• Roger Federer to win 3 - 0 -110
• Roger Federer to win 3 - 1 +225
• Roger Federer to win 3 - 2 +600
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 3 - 0 +1400
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 3 - 1 +900
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 3 - 2 +1000

Tennis Betting Verdict: The favoured outcome is Federer to win in straight sets at -110 but I think we can all agree Tsonga is too good a player to be blown off court in straights. Therefore, the value play for tennis bettors looking to back Federer would be a four set win, which is trading at +225. Conversely, bettors looking to back Tsonga should probably move off Tsonga winning in straight sets. The price is large and the result unthinkable. This is F-E-D-E-R-E-R after all and I cannot remember when he lost a grand slam match in straights. You would have to go back six years to the French Open. Tsonga to win in four sets is trading at a lower +900 but even that might be a stretch. So, if you are looking for Tsonga to win, a five set marathon is the most likely outcome that would go in his favour, offered at +1000.

First Set Score

• Roger Federer to win 6-0 +3500
• Roger Federer to win 6-1 +900
• Roger Federer to win 6-2 +600
• Roger Federer to win 6-3 +300
• Roger Federer to win 6-4 +300
• Roger Federer to win 7-5 +900
• Roger Federer to win 7-6 +500
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 6-0 +20000
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 6-1 +7000
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 6-2 +3500
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 6-3 +1200
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 6-4 +800
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 7-5 +3000
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 7-6 +700

Tennis Betting Verdict: Looking at the market range the favoured outcomes are Federer to win 6-3, 6-4, trading at the lowest price of +300. While over in Tsonga’s camp, the more favourable outcomes are to win 6-4 or 7-6, offered at +800 and +700 respectively. There is a lot on line in this match, and certainly, in the first set. Both players should be competitive and as such, I am favouring the tiebreak in the first set, offered at +500 in Federer’s favour and +700 in Tsonga’s favour.

Tie Break in First Set Moneyline

Yes +300
No -500

Tennis Betting Verdict: I definitely think there is a high probability there will be a tiebreak in the first set. It isn’t the market’s favoured outcome but I would recommend taking the Yes, trading at +300.

Tie Break in Match

Yes -140
No Ev

Tennis Betting Verdict: Given that, we have two of the best servers colliding in the game you have to believe they will hold serve at least in one set to force a tiebreak. The market agrees, favouring the tiebreak in the match at -140.

Double Result Moneyline

• Roger Federer to win 1st set and WIN match -350
• Roger Federer to win 1st set and LOSE match +900
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 1st set and WIN match +500
• Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win 1st set and LOSE match +400

Tennis Betting Verdict: Federer to win the first set and win the match is the favoured outcome in the market, carrying a price of -350. However, two tough opponents – Andreev and Davydenko – managed to take the first set off Federer before he won the match. I think there is a real chance Tsonga will take the first set but will lose the match, which is trading at a reasonable +400. An alternative is Tsonga to win the first set and win the match, trading at slightly larger odds of +500.