Australian Open Futures: Baghdatis, Ferrer and Nalbandian

Rounding off my batch of players that I would put in the category of “market outsiders” are Marcos Baghdatis, David Ferrer and David Nalbandian. This trio is talented mind, and I wouldn’t put a deep run past them, however, for all their mad skills on hard courts and obvious arsenal of weapons, I can’t see either of them lifting the coveted trophy at the end of the fortnight in Melbourne.

Marcos Baghdatis +8000

The 24-year-old Cypriot currently ranks at World No.42. He was once ranked as high as World No.8 in 2006. That ranking correlated to a standout Australian Open run in the same year, during which he breezed, out of nowhere, into the finals and finished runner-up to Roger Federer. On his Cinderella run, he took out noteworthy opposition in Stepanek, Roddick, Ljubicic and Nalbandian.

Baghdatis commands a lot of fanfare in Melbourne and perhaps because of his popularity and the overwhelming crowd support he receives, he does rather well at the Aussie Open. In his debut at the 2005 Aussie Open, he reached the R16. He reached the last 16 last year as well – a year that was arguably one of the most challenging in his career. Overall, Baghdatis is 15-5 in Melbourne.

In 2009, Baghdatis totted up a tally of 23-16 on the season and won one title. He started the year ranked on the fringe of the top 100 and worked his way back into the top 50. He finished the season on a high note winning the title in Stockholm. He also picked up two Challenger titles on the season in Vancouver and Tashkent.

Yet, in spite of the clear uptick in his game and heading in a positive direction, repeating the heroics of 2006, never mind outdoing them, is beyond Baghdatis, in my humble opinion. A good draw could see him into the fourth round or maybe the quarters, but no deeper. I would be surprised if he went further.

David Nalbandian +8000

David Nalbandian missed most of last season because he had to have hip surgery. He only managed a 14-7 mark before going under the knife. Because there is little to reference from last year in his case he is a bit of an anomaly for the 2010 season and for the first Grand Slam of the year.

Taking a broader cross section of his career, there is no doubt Nalbandian has mad skills and his current ranking of World No 64 is deceiving. For example, he is one of few players that can lay claim to a competitive head-to-head with Roger Federer – he trails 8-10. He once ranked as high as world No.3 in 2006. In the same year, he was a semi-finalist at the Aussie Open (l. to Baghdatis). In fact, from 2003 to 2006, he reached the quarters or better at Melbourne. In 2007, he reached the last 16.

Of course, Nalbandian is older now, 27 years old, and short on match form. How this will translate at the start of the season is anybody’s guess. Certainly, he it will not be a cakewalk for the Argentine but he is still held a player is capable of working his way back into the top 20 so underestimating him would be a mistake. That said, I don’t see him winning the Aussie Open title. At best, I would tip him to reach the fourth round.