in UFC / MMA Articles

As dramatic and unpredictable as UFC and MMA fighting can be, there are some factors that cannot go unnoticed when handicapping these fights. One that is very relevant in tonight’s match up is the fact that Tito Ortiz and Chuck Liddell have faced each other before. In this case, not just inside the octagon, but as training partners in the gym as well. The significance of this is not just that they are familiar with each others style, but unlike boxing, where there is a basic foundation in which a fighter works from, making subtle strategic adjustments to ones style in mixed martial arts does not greatly affect the outcome of a fight. It is not so much of a case of not being able to teach an old dog new tricks, but simply that in boxing, all fighters basic foundation is boxing. MMA fighters may have their roots in a myriad of different disciplines, and although they may train hard in other strategies, certain fighters simply fight a certain way. This is why it is rare to see once defeated fighters come back and win a rematch. It does not make it impossible, but if you lose to a kickboxer, by kickboxing, and you’re not a kickboxer, you’re not coming back and beating this person…with kickboxing.

Other factors that weigh heavily in Chuck Liddell’s favor are also his ability to overwhelm opponents with big COUNTER PUNCHING. This needs to be emphasized because he has the reputation of being a massive offensive puncher, but in fact, Chuck Liddell is at his best when he is being attacked with punches and can calmly set up counters to exposed, over aggressive opponents. If Tito has delusions of standing up and banging with Ortiz, this might be a short night.

Another aspect that Chuck Liddell has over Ortiz is psychological. He knows how he fights. He’s seen him in the gym and the octagon. And he beat him. Regardless of how cocky Tito may be, he knows that Chuck can beat him. Not that he will, but that he can.

If Ortiz is going to win this fight, there are a few things he must accomplish. He needs to survive the barrage. At any point during the fight where these to are standing up, Liddell is likely to attack. Either to insight Tito to attack back, or if he feels he can overwhelm Tito’s defense. Tito needs to get the heck out of dodge when this happens. Let go of his ego, realize that he can’t hang here and slip away. DO NOT use this as an opportunity for a take down, Renato Sobral made that mistake against Liddell, and got KO’d. Twice.

Tito needs to take some advice from Liddell himself and be patient. The old adage says if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. If Tito can get a few opportunities to apply his devastating ground and pound, he can beat absolutely anybody. That’s where he can win this fight. Ground and pound. It might not end in a KO the first time he gets Liddell down, but if he can soften him up by landing punches cleanly in the guard once of twice every round, and survive four or five rounds in, he can begin to overwhelm Chuck with his power. They are both very evenly matched as grapplers, but Tito’s hammer fists and elbows can outmatch Liddell’s on the ground, if he can tire him out enough penetrate his ground defense.

Either way, I can’t wait to see how this ends up. As for my prediction;

Chuck Liddell 2nd round TKO.

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Darren Cora is a freelance columnist and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room and BetUS.com Radio Show. To email Darren, send your comments to faceoff@betus.com.