Kenny Florian vs. BJ Penn - UFC 101 Upset Alert

UFC 101 Declaration

Date: Aug 8, 10PM EST
Location: Wachovia Center, Philadelphia, PA

The Kenny Florian vs. BJ Penn fight has all the makings of a classic, as it is a matchup between an established superstar and an emerging star who seems to be coming into his own after a few years in the UFC.

Penn has all the motivation in the world after being crushed by Georges St. Pierre in his last fight and a motivated Penn can be a scary thing as most of the MMA world knows. After all, motivation is often cited as one of Penn’s few weaknesses.

Florian is perhaps equally motivated going into this fight as well having had a title shot at UFC 64 against Sean Sherk that didn’t go so well. Florian was bullied around in that fight but it turned out to be a great learning experience for him as he hired a new strength and conditioning coach and has matured into a stronger and more powerful fighter.

BetUS Sportsbook has Penn listed as a -230 to +180 favorite in this UFC 101 lightweight title match, numbers that were expected going in as Florian expected to be the underdog in this one. As for the matchup itself, this is a tough one to quantify because both guys are so well-rounded and don’t have many weaknesses.

Penn’s biggest strength is his jiu-jitsu game but he has great hands and dexterity. He is nearly impossible to take down although St. Pierre managed to get him down, but that was no doubt because of the size advantage he possessed. Florian won’t be able to take Penn down unless something crazy happens.

Florian probably doesn’t want to get caught in a jiu-jitsu competition with Penn, however, even though he is one of the better submission artists in the UFC’s lightweight division.

Florian is excellent at securing good position on the ground and using his vicious elbows, however, so he might try to take advantage of Penn in that respect should the situation arise.

When it’s all said and done, however, this should be a stand-up war, and that’s where things will get really interesting as this will be a strong contender for Fight of the Night honors.

Penn is a little more of a pure boxer than Florian is, but he has some creativity in his strikes as well. He’s not afraid to wade in and throw some knees or even flying knees and other unpredictable strikes, and he’s so quick on his feet that his opponents hardly ever see them coming.

Florian has some wicked high kicks as well as elbows, and his striking has looked as crisp as anyone in the division in the past few years.

This is obviously a hard fight to call considering the point both fighters are at in their careers, but the pick here is that Florian scores an upset at UFC 101 because of his varied striking game and a potential “nothing to lose” type of attitude as the underdog coming into the fight.

Florian has won 9 of his past 10 fights with the only loss coming to Sherk and the most impressive thing he has shown is his ability to string together moves and submission attempts. His confidence in the Octagon is incredible and his underdog status lies at least partly with his stint on the Ultimate Fighter TV show. But Florian has proven time and time again to fans and the betting community that he is a force to be reckoned with and a truly elite fighter, and a strong reminder will come on Saturday as he will take BJ Penn’s championship belt at UFC 101.