UFC 100 Heavyweight Championship - Mir vs. Lesnar for the Belt
by Charles Jay
LESNAR VS. MIR: LET'S FIND OUT WHAT BROCK HAS LEARNED
Here are the BetUS UFC betting odds on the fight:
July 11 -- Las Vegas
UFC Heavyweight Title
BROCK LESNAR -240
FRANK MIR +190
For betting purposes, let's size up the contestants:
UFC betting odds, has the kind of background that served as a springboard for many UFC standouts. He was an NCAA heavyweight wrestling champion in 2000 when at the University of Minnesota. Upon entering World Wrestling Entertainment on the pro level, he ascended very quickly to the top, and in fact became the youngest champion ever in Vince McMahon's organization. Lesnar won the championship on three different occasions, and he and former Olympic gold medalist Kurt Angle developed one of the more storied rivalries in the recent history of pro wrestling. Lesnar decided to give pro football a try, and he went to camp as a defensive lineman with the Minnesota Vikings. He could have had a future in pro football, but he balked when the Vikings asked him to go to NFL Europe for development. He then turned to the mixed martial arts world, making his debut in K-1 in 2007, as he scored a submission over Min Soo Kim in the first round. Lesnar then moved on to the UFC, and he wanted to enter it with a bang, fighting some of the best. He was matched with Frank Mir in February of 2008, and started out looking strong, but got caught in a kneebar by the veteran former champion, and a minute and a half into the fight, it was over. Lesnar was not to be written off, however. He returned against Heath Herring and dominated from the start, keeping Herring on the ground and scoring a decision win. That set up the fight with Randy Couture, the heavyweight champ who was never dethroned and had returned to the UFC. Instead of being able to impose his massive edge in experience on Lesnar, Couture found himself on the end of a big right hand that basically ended things in the second round.
MIR (12-3, 2 KO's), the +190 underdog at BetUS, is a native of Las Vegas with a background in wrestling, and studied kenpo karate because his father had a training school. He seemed destined for a career in mixed martial arts, and made his debut in July of 2001 with a two-round decision over Jerome Smith in an organization known as Hook-n-Shoot. He made his UFC debut in his third pro fight, beating Roberto Traven. Despite a loss to Ian Freeman at UFC 38, he was considered a genuine prospect, and after beating Tank Abbott, as well as Wes Sims a couple of times, he got a chance to challenge Tim Sylvia for the UFC heavyweight title belt. Mir was able to put an arm bar on Sylvia very early in the fight, and after it broke Sylvia's arm, the referee stopped the fight at the 50-second mark of the first round. Three months later, Mir was involved in a motorcycle accident that broke his leg, tore up his knee, and nearly ended his career. He wasn't in any kind of shape to fight again for a year and a half, and his title wound up being vacated. His return to the Octagon was somewhat less than sensational. He suffered upset losses at the hands of Marcio Cruz and Brandon Vera, both by first-round TKO, and he was considered to be more or less finished as a fighter. But then along came a bout with Brock Lesnar, which brought him back into the title picture when Mir was able to put a kneebar on Lesnar to end things a minute and 30 seconds into the first round. With that win, Mir earned a fight with Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira for the "interim" heavyweight title. The comeback was complete after Mir floored Nogeira a few times before bringing it to an end on strikes in the second round.
This fight was supposed to have taken place at UFC 98, but Mir had a knee problem that had to be taken care of. Now he is back and ready for Lesnar, in what is a "unification" fight, which proves that the UFC can be every bit as ridiculous as any boxing organization when it comes to identifying its own champions.
There is obviously a case to be made for Lesnar in this rematch. When he was fighting Mir the first time, his expectations were probably a lot different, he had never been matched with anyone who was a skilled mixed martial artists, much less a world champion, and he hadn't even had a legitimate run over the track yet.
Lesnar has learned a lot since then. He was able to handle a veteran like Herring pretty well, and the win over Couture came against someone much smaller, but a guy who knew fifty ways to win nonetheless. Lesnar has said basically that after the fight with Mir, he understood what it took as far as preparation was concerned, and that is the roadmap he followed. With his brute strength and incredible athletic ability, there was a lot of upside, and at least some of that upside has been realized.
Lesnar's game plan is probably to overwhelm Mir with his strength, one way or another, whether it is to get him on the ground and do some wrestling or hit him with a right hand or two. The ground and pound is a real possibility too. That's probably what Mir has to look out for more than anything else, because that is the way it was starting to happen in the first fight before Lesnar was stopped and warned for hitting behind the head.
Lesnar may find out that Mir is a better striker than he anticipated. Mir has demonstrated some of that in the fight with Nogueira, and that brings up another point - that while Lesnar is more settled and confident now than he was in the first match, so is Mir. He is still the guy who can take advantage of any mistake and can turn things around in an instant, and Lesnar is still a fighter who is a bit rough around the edges. Also, from what I am hearing, Mir is on a training regimen that is going to give him better stamina and recovery this time.
Yes, I am once again going with Frank Mir, the +190 underdog in the BetUS UFC 100 mixed martial arts betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: MIR TO WIN (+190) ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
