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UFC 104 Heavyweight Main Event - Velasquez vs. Rothwell

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BetUS MMA Betting Odds

UFC 104 - Heavyweights (3 rounds)
October 24 - Los Angeles

CAIN VELASQUEZ  -300
BEN ROTHWELL  +220

For betting purposes, let's look at the contestants:

VELASQUEZ (6-0, 5 KO's), the -300 favorite in the BetUS UFC MMA betting odds, has a great wrestling background, being named All-America twice in his days at Arizona State University. He first fought as a pro on a Strikeforce card, beating Jesse Fujarczyk in one round. His UFC debut took place in April of last year, as he stopped Brad Morris in two minutes and ten seconds. He was extended into the second round for the first time at UFC Night in February, as he eventually scored a stoppage over Dennis Stojnic. His last fight was by far his stiffest challenge to date. In beating an experienced opponent in Cheick Kongo, Velasquez demonstrated he could go the full three-round distance and keep his composure. He was supposed to fight Shane Carwin on this card, by Carwin was elevated to a fight against Brock Lesnar at UFC 106.

ROTHWELL (30-6, 17 KO's), the +220 underdog at BetUS, has enough experience to be considered an old pro but is still only 28 years of age. He began his pro career in 2001, at the age of 17, with a win over Ron Shinkle. In his fifth pro fight, he lost by decision to Tim Sylvia, another Miletich product who would go on to win the UFC heavyweight crown. Rothwell bounced around a lot after that, fighting in about a dozen different organizations before finding his way into the team format of the International Fight League in 2006. He went undefeated with nine straight wins in IFL competition, beating the likes of Roy Nelson, a recent conqueror of Kimbo Slice, and former UFC heavyweight titleholder Ricco Rodriguez, which took place in the IFL Team Championship Finals.

After the IFL folded, Rothwell got with the Affliction people and got knocked out by Andrei Arlovski last July. After beating Chris Guillen on a Miletich-promoted card in Moline, IL in December, he hasn't fought since. He was scheduled to fight Chase Gormley on an Affliction show on August 1, but Affliction's promotional arm went down for the count.

Rothwell, in making his UFC debut, comes in with something of a reputation from his days with the IFL. Cain Velasquez is not a guy with a lot of experience, but he is making progress quickly. His  win over Chieck Congo, who may not have ever met the lofty expectations some had for him, was a good win nonetheless; the kind of stepping stone an aspiring contender needs to have.

Still, Velasquez has only six pro fights, and though the UFC would be happy to "groom" him for stardom, he's going to have to earn his way into that position. That means a win over Rothwell, has the ability to fight on the ground, as well as high level of comfort in the stand-up. In fact, knowing that Velasquez is a wrestler by trade and would probably rather have this thing go to the ground, don't be surprised to see Rothwell make this a striking match to see what Velasquez really possesses in that regard, specifically in taking a punch.

What kind of fighters are able to do those kinds of things? Well, maybe fighters with vastly more experience. Rothwell fits that description, having been in 36 fights, not to mention a lot of gym wars at the Miletich Fighting Systems shop.

The winner here will most likely get a shot at Brock Lesnar eventually. I'll just say that Velasquez would have to be very, very impressive to demonstrate he is ready for something like that, and Rothwell may never be. It's not all that unusual for a fighter to lose on experience, and it's not a career-killer, because they always are able to come back. In the UFC, there's not as much "protection" of a prospect as there is in boxing. As an underdog, you are not likely to find too many better candidates than Ben Rothwell, the +220 dog in the BetUS UFC MMA betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY:  ROTHWELL TO WIN (+220) *** 

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)