UFC 105 - Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera
by Charles Jay
BetUS MMA Betting Odds
UFC - Light HeavyweightsNovember 14 -- Manchester, UK
RANDY COUTURE -120
BRANDON VERA -110
For betting purposes, let's look at the contestants:
COUTURE (16-10, 7 KO's), the -120 favorite in the BetUS UFC betting odds, made his bones as a wrestler at Oklahoma State, where he was a three-time All-American. Couture won himself a spot as an alternate on the U.S. Olympic team three consecutive times - 1988, 1992 and 1996. Couture also immediately took to mixed martial arts; in fact, in just his fourth UFC fight, he won the heavyweight championship with a decision over Maurice Smith.
Afterward came a contractual falling-out with the UFC, and Couture ventured to Japan where he competed for the "RINGS" promotion. After that hiatus, he moved back in to the UFC, and subsequently won the heavyweight title for the second time, beating Kevin Randleman at UFC 28. After losing fights to Ricco Rodriguez and Josh Barnett, however, he dropped down to the light heavyweight class, and when he scored a stoppage of Chuck Liddell to win the light heavy crown in June of 2003, he became the first fighter to win a championship in two different weight divisions.
After that, he scored a win over Tito Ortiz in a title defense and his star power was increasing exponentially. Then came two losses to Chuck Liddell, and Couture's career as a relevant competitor was thought by some to be over.
Brock Lesnar in what was billed as a defense of the UFC heavyweight title he had actually never lost in the Octagon. In that fight, Couture had a huge experience edge, but he was knocked down by Lesnar and found himself being pounded on, with Lesnar finishing him. He did not quit fighting, however, and competed against Antonio Rodrigo Mogueira at UFC 102. It was decision loss+ in which he was competitive but where the verdict was not disputable. Now he moves back down to the light heavyweight class, with a new UFC contract, with an eye toward champion Lyoto Machida.
VERA (11-3, 7 KO's), the -110 underdog in the BetUS UFC betting odds, is a native of Norfolk, Virginia, who attended Old Dominion University on a wrestling scholarship but dropped out to join the Air Force. He wrestled while in the service, but an injury cut that short. After his rehabilitation, he began to explore the possibilities in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and subsequently, mixed martial arts.
He turned pro as an MMA fighter in July of 2002 when he stopped Adam Rivera.
He won four straight fights, in the process winning a heavyweight tournament in WEC (World Extreme Cagefighting) before joining up with the UFC and stopping Fabiano Scherner at an "Ultimate Fight Night."
By far, his biggest career win came at UFC 65, when he scored a TKO in 69 seconds over Frank Mir. That led to a golden opportunity to fight Tim Sylvia, with a heavyweight title shot in the balance. It was not to be, as he suffered his first career loss, breaking his hand and dropping a unanimous decision.
After another loss, this time to Fabricio Werdum, he dropped weight and went to the light heavies, defeating Reese Andy in what was an underwhelming performance, then losing a split decision to Keith Jardine. He started to make his way back by stopping Mike Patt on leg kicks at UFC 96 (as a preliminary bout), and in his last fight, he won a decision over Krzysztof Soszynski back on August 29.
There are going to be questions from this point forward about Couture, because of his advanced age. At 46, it is suspected by some that he's got nothing left, and indeed, there isn't a whole lot to take from those losses to Lesnar and Nogueira other than that he couldn't compete with the best heavyweights in the division any more. Was the solution to move down to the light heavyweights, where the guys are quicker?
We know what Couture can do, particularly when he gets someone to the floor. What we have seen Vera do and what he will do on Saturday are perhaps two different questions.
Vera looked for a while like he was on a B-line to the heavyweight title. That was based partly on the fight where he stunned Frank Mir with a big right hand, then put him into a Muay Thai clinch and wound up stopping him in less than a minute and a half. Of course, Mir wasn't that far removed from his motorcycle accident at that time, and it came before his "comeback" effort against Lesnar. Since Vera's move to the light heavyweights, he has not been the most imposing force, so we'd worry a little about under-achievement here.
Vera is a versatile fighter, and should have an edge in the stand-up, but Couture takes the advantage on the ground, and I say that despite Vera's Jiu-Jitsu prowess. My guess is that Couture will be able to get him to the ground, and the problems he's had with those bigger heavyweights will be eliminated to an extent because he's back in a weight division that might be better suited to him.
I can see Couture extracting the advantages on the floor, and pounding out a unanimous decision, so he's the choice at -120 in the BetUS UFC mixed martial arts betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: COUTURE TO WIN (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
