UFC 106 Submission of the Night Candidate - Thiago vs. Volkman
by Nick Meyer
Paulo Thiago's big win over Josh Koscheck created a ton of positive buzz and rewards for the Brazilian. Thiago went from being an unknown who happens to have a similar name to other more popular fighters to a person of interest in the UFC's welterweight title chase.
But the win over Koscheck by the underdog Thiago also had an unintended negative effect: it meant that he would next have to face an angry American Top Team teammate of Koscheck's in Jon Fitch.
Fitch didn't make the same mistake Koscheck made, as he used his superior wrestling to punish and control Thiago in their meeting instead of getting caught up in slugfest with the powerful Thiago.
Thiago gets a much easier challenge in his UFC 106 fight, however, a matchup with Jacob Volkman that has been moved to the promotion's main card to take the place of the Karo Parisyan vs. Dustin Hazelett fight which Parisyan pulled out of due to various issues.
Thiago is a big-time favorite at -260 odds on the BetUS.com Sportsbook compared to +200 odds for the underdog Volkman, although name recognition certainly plays heavily into those odds.
While Thiago was able to beat Koscheck in a questionable fashion due to a possible early stoppage, the rest of his game is still a bit untested and he tends to be overvalued by bettors due to that big upset win.
Bet on Thiago and UFC 106 here.
That being said, Thiago still has a lot of skills at his disposal going in as the favorite including knockout power, calm demeanor in the Octagon, and a very good jiu-jitsu game that could lead a submission of the night win over Volkman with a little luck.
Volkman counters with some solid wrestling prowess as the underdog, something that gave Thiago trouble against Jon Fitch. But Fitch is a better MMA wrestler than Volkman for sure.
Volkman is on a nine-fight win streak coming in and he has actually scored his fair share of submissions in those fights, which is rare for a wrestler in MMA. But he won't be able to pull them off against Thiago, who was able to stave off Fitch on the ground for a while using his transition game on the ground.
If Volkman does take Thiago down, he could be in for the fight of his life on the mat because Thiago is too crafty for him both on his back and in the scramble.
That will spell doom for Volkman, as he ends up getting submitted in the first round by Thiago in what could be another showcase bout for an up-and-coming new welterweight contender.
The pick: Paulo Thiago (-260) by submission in the first round.
