UFC 109 Betting - Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago

Mike Swick (14-3-0) vs Paulo Thiago (12-1-0)

UFC Betting Line: Swick -220

It’s not often that Mike “Quick” Swick has had to bounce back from a loss in his career but that is exactly what he’ll be looking to do in this fight against Paulo Thiago. Swick was on the wrong end of a decision at UFC 105 when Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy took the win and moved into the No. 1 contender status in the welterweight division.

Swick will try to recover against Paulo Thiago, who is still a fresh face to the sport. A lot of people aren’t sure what to make of Thiago at this point as he punched Josh Koscheck into next week in his first UFC bout but then followed it up with a decision lost to Jon Fitch. Thiago got a win in his latest bout but we’re going to find out more about him when he fights Mike Swick.

Leading Up To UFC 109: Mike Swick

Mike Swick was on his way to being the No. 1 contender until he was defeated by the guy who became the No.1 contender. Swick went into hostile territory when he fought Dan Hardy in front of his home fans at UFC 105 in the United Kingdom and the result didn’t turn out so well, as we know.

But Swick can bounce back quickly if he gets a win over Thiago. That’s an if.

Leading Up To UFC 109: Paulo Thiago

A lot of people are still wondering whether Thiago’s knock out of Koscheck was a fluke or whether that was a legitimate sign of what he’s capable of. In his next bout, he showed he has cardio but couldn’t really get much done against Jon Fitch. If Thiago has improved, he’ll take care of business against Swick. If not, Swick, who is Fitch’s teammate, will probably use the same game plan.

Thiago is an unknown and that’s why he’s a big underdog in this bout. The reality is that he is very good on the ground and potentially just as strong standing.

UFC 109 Betting: Swick vs Thiago Matchup 

There are many fights on the UFC 109 card that look very one-sided and you have to lay plenty of juice to take the favorite. This might be one bout to side with the underdog simply because of value.

Sure, we don’t know that Thiago is the real deal quite yet but we do know that this fight should be even. Thiago should have the advantage on the ground and if his striking is as good as it was against Koscheck, he’ll actually be the better fighter in the ring. Swick is quick but that quickness won’t help him too much on the mat.

Based on value and based on the fact that this should be an even fight, take the value with Thiago as a +175 underdog.

Winning Pick: Thiago