UFC 95 Main Event Upset Pick - Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Stevenson
by Robby Maddux
(21-2-0) Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez vs. Joe "Daddy" Stevenson (34-9-0)
Joe Stevenson (+250), as Sanchez drops from 170 to make his 155-pound debut. Sanchez will not be the beneficiary of fighting a non title contender as a tune up bout in his drop in class, instead he'll face a tough veteran in Stevenson, who was one victory from a title fight before getting defeated by Kenny Florian at UFC 91.
Sanchez comes into this bout fresh off consecutive wins in the welterweight division after back-to-back losses against Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck. He showed impressive all around skills against David Bielkheden at UFC 82 and tremendous striking ability against Luigi Fioravanti at The Ultimate Fighter 7 finale in his past two wins.
In his most recent outing versus Fioravanti, Sanchez showed the MMA wagering world he's evolving into a dangerous striker to accompany his long established powerful ground game. After catching Fioravanti with a head kick followed by a knee that put him down, Sanchez finished the contest with his stellar ground and pound.
But keep in mind, some fighters cut weight with no problems, while others struggle in fights because they don't recover from the regiments to rapidly drop weight. The cut could be a key factor to the outcome. Sanchez is diving head first into the 155-pound class against a top notch fighter, so there will be no lingering questions surrounding how the weight cut affected him after this bout.
Stevenson has been at the top of the lightweight division since 2007 and has lost only once in his first six UFC fights to get a title bout versus BJ Penn. But Stevenson was overmatched and pretty much inhaled by Penn before the end of the second round. Stevenson then bounced back with an impressive submission win over Gleison Tibau at UFC 86, which earned him a shot as the number one contender against Florian. Florian put Stevenson on the mat followed by strikes, which led to a guillotine choke that made Stevenson tap out near the end of Round 1.
Analysis: With a victory Stevenson could earn a rematch with either Penn or Florian, placing him back at the top of a strong lightweight division. Sanchez is the stronger fighter but cutting to 155 pounds will affect the whole spectrum of his game. So not only will he be facing a hungry fighter, his other challenger could be fatigue following the weight cut.
Sanchez's above average speed as a 170-pound fighter will be less effective at 155 where speed comes natural and at a vigorous pace throughout the entire three rounds. Sanchez stands at 5'11'' with Stevenson being 5'7'', providing Stevenson the opportunity to use leverage to take Sanchez down to the mat where height and reach become a non-factor. Stevenson's more compact structure and quicks will make it difficult for Sanchez, the lengthier less balanced fighter, to recover from a mistake fast enough to prevent a submission.
Free UFC 95 Predictions: Joe "Daddy" Stevenson +250 (Round 3 submission)
