BetUS Sportsbook Outcome Props
JOSH NEER VS. KURT PELLEGRINO
August 8 -- Philadelphia
Fight Goes 3 Round Distance
Josh Neer wins inside distance
Josh Neer wins by 3 round decision
Kurt Pellegrino wins inside distance
Kurt Pellegrino wins by 3 round decision
I think that sometimes when you look at the props for a fight, it is possible that you could go with a proposition that favors someone even if you didn't select him to win. That's just the way it goes, and that's the way value works. In other cases, however, when you pick a guy to win, you are also taking into account HOW they are going to win, and that certainly aids you in coming up with what propositions to look at.
Josh Neer is a much more experienced competitor than his opponent, Kurt Pellegrino, as we come into this scheduled three-rounder. At the same time, Neer is a journeyman, and we know that with journeymen anything can happen unless they are either vastly superior or vastly inferior in relation to the opponent. In this case Pellegrino has qualities that he can certainly bring to the table in the wrestling department, and I say this despite the fact that Neer has eleven career submissions to his credit.
This whole fight is about two things: Pellegrino trying to get Neer to the ground and Neer doing whatever he can to keep things in the stand-up mode. We are very impressed with Pellegrino's record, not when it comes to throwing strikes, but in his ability to get submissions over opponents. He has done it in nine of his 13 wins. Just as significantly, he has lost four times, and in three of those fights he has been choked out - against Satoru Kitaoka, Drew Fickett and Nate Diaz. He is like the guys we used to talk about in boxing - they're either going to knock someone out or GET knocked out, and there's not a lot of in between.
At the same time, he wants to get Neer to the ground because he wants to take advantage of the fact that Neer has been submitted three times in his seven losses. I like Neer's toughness, but I think he is very wary about having to go to the ground with a proficient grappler. When I look at a guy's record and I see that of his 33 fights, 24 have ended early, or that 21 of his 25 wins have been inside the distance, and furthermore, that he has been able to take people out with strikes and submissions in almost equal measure, I know that we are likely in for a short night, no matter who wins.
So we may want to explore the distance pro by going with a -175 on the "NO" in the BetUS UFC 101 betting props; however, we may also be intrigued by the +325 on Pellegrino to win this fight inside the distance. Let's move in that direction, and get even further value with the underdog.