Will the fight go the 5-Round distance?
I think not. Lesnar has never been the five-round distance in a fight, and I don't know that he is prepared to do it. My way of thinking is that he wants to use his explosiveness and come out and overwhelm Mir with his strength. Mir may want to extend things, and we'll get to that in a minute, but there is just no way I see this fight going a full 25 minutes. There is just too much knockout and submission power in both guys, and I don't think either one of them wants to leave it up to the judges to determine the winner. NO (-1200)
Lesnar to win fight in Rd 1 +300
Any Other Result -500
Mir to win fight in Rd 1 +700
Any Other Result -1600
I would bet the "OTHER RESULT" on both of these, even considering that the first fight between these two ended in one round (-500 at BetUS). There is just no way, if I am Frank Mir, that I am going to allow this to happen. To give Lesnar any opportunity to come out early and establish a beachhead, while he's still very fresh, would be a grave error on his part.
I know that a lot of people look at Randy Couture.
Let's focus on these now:
Mir to win fight in Rd 2 +900
Any Other Result -2500
Mir to win fight in Rd 3 +1000
Any Other Result -3000
I might be willing to go with Mir in both of these props. This is what I'm thinking if I'm Mir. I know that I am the more experienced fighter, and that when Lesnar made a mistake, I was ready to pounce on it and exploit it. I know that I can do it again, because I have submitted him already, but I want for Lesnar to be a fighter who is a little winded when that happens. I also know that if I am patient, it is going to happen sooner or later, so I am not going to be in a hurry. What I would be willing to do is wait for Lesnar to make that mistake, and then do what I have to do.
The longer the fight goes, the greater the chance that there is going to be a mistake, and the more vulnerable Lesnar is going to be by virtue of that mistake. To me, there is no need for him to be looking to pounce upon Lesnar right away. As a result, Frank Mir should be perfectly willing to allow this fight to go into the second round and even the third.
Eventually, Mir will win.