2010 World Cup Preview - Defending Champ Italy May Have an Age Problem
by Charles Jay
World Cup bettors have come to know Italy as one of the true stalwarts in world soccer, and they are the defending champions in this event.However, there are doubts that have been cast over the Italian side, because in the minds of many, it is starting to resemble another version of the "Over-the-Hill Gang."
Now the Italians will have to defy the odds to make a successful defense of their World Cup 2010 title as action begins for them on Monday.
In Group F, they are the betting favorite at -185, with Paraguay, the first match opponent, coming next at +250.
The World Cup
June 11 - July 11
South Africa
FIFA World Cup Betting Odds
To Win Group F
- Italy -185
- Paraguay +250
- Slovakia +600
- New Zealand +7000
Italy came through European Group Eight with seven victories and three draws to qualify, but that's not what is going to tell the story here. This team, which was, in the opinion of many, lucky to get past Australia in the 2006 World Cup quarterfinals (en route to the title), has undergone a couple of things - roster turnover and aging, and that is why you can get a +550 betting price on them returning to the finals again.
A case in point might be Fabio Cannavaro, who anchored the defense for that '06 championship team. That task will be more difficult this time, because he is pushing 37. The team captain dismisses any notion that this is a team that will be limping by the time the second round starts.
"This tournament isn't a league with 50 matches in which your physical condition is crucial," he said. "At a World Cup, seven matches is all it takes. That's why we're going for it."
They may be going for it, alright, and indeed they are -185 betting favorites to win Group F, but there is little question that veterans like Gennaro Gattuso (retiring after the tournament) and Mauro Camoransesi are not coming into this competition with a full head of steam.
Francesco Totti, one of the heroes of the '06 victory, won't even be on hand. Gianluca Zambrotta, at age 33, has seen his best years, and many are scoffing at his comments that all the criticism that has come down on him and his teammates is only going to serve to motivate them.
For the sake of betting information, here are Italy's most recent results in the World Cup:
- 1990 - 3rd Place
- 1994 - Runner-up
- 1998 - Quarterfinal
- 2002 - Second Round
- 2006 - Champion
Surely there is much talent. Alberto Gilardino has had two great seasons for Fiorentina in Serie A and is going to be one of the go-to people; you can count on that. He's got 39 caps under his belt (with 13 goals) and he is the betting favorite among all Italian players to be the goal-scoring leader (+250). He forms a potentially potent combo with Antonio DiNatale, who is one of the vets (age 32) who is coming off a good season for his club (Udinese). Vincenzo Iaquinta (+500 to be their top goal scorer) rounds out the three people on the attack in the 4-3-2-1 setup.
In the midfield is where Italy may find itself hurting. Sure, there is Daniele De Rossi, who everyone concedes was a principal cog for Roma this past season, and who can go box-to-box with the best of them, but there will be a glaring absence, at least as Italy navigates its way through the first couple of World Cup games.
Andrea Pirlo a brilliant playmaker and regarded as the glue that holds this offensive attack together, should miss at least the first couple of games with a calf injury, and that means Italy will be playing without one of its 2006 World Cup heroes who can actually claim to have not lost a step.
Well, I guess he's lost a step now. Still, he's +1400 in the betting to lead this team in scoring, with the assumption that the Azzurri will get past its group and on to the knockout round.
That is not an empty assumption. "When it comes to defending there’s no one that can match us,” says Cannavaro. That might not be quite true, because if Cannavaro and Zambrotta have indeed slowed down, that leaves Giorgio Chellini as the big standout back there and not much else.
Well, except for perhaps the greatest goalkeeper in the world. Gianluigi Buffon is the last line of defense, and even though he lost some time with Juventus this past season due to an injury, this veteran of 101 caps is fine and fit for the Cup. He is, in the absence of Pirlo, Italy's most valuable asset.
The guy who is under the gun here is coach Marcello Lippi, who has made some rather controversial choices for his squad, namely the exclusion of Totti and Luca Toni, but those things won't make the difference. This is a national squad that has to be rebuilt, and they are not going to be in a kind of limbo and challenge seriously for the World Cup.
They are -1400 in the betting prop to get past the group phase, and that should happen, but they may be hard pressed to get to the quarterfinals, where they are a -140 favorite to advance. There is little momentum to point to, as Italy limped in with a 2-1 loss to Mexico and a 1-1 tie with Switzerland, neither of whom are rated very highly by FIFA. I hope Lippi has some headgear when he returns home.
