Italy Will Not Have Cakewalk in South Africa – World Cup Betting Odds
by Charles Jay
World Cup bettors who were expecting Italy to take a cakewalk to the semi-finals or the finals in the 2010 World Cup may find themselves a bit surprised when all is said and done. Sure, the Azzurri are the defending champs, and they have enough talent to get through to the next round of play, but they may have to go through another cycle if they are going to have a hope of going head-to-head with the likes of Spain, Brazil, England and Argentina.
They will start World Cup 2010 group play against Paraguay, which has enough mental toughness that they will not be awed in the least. The game is slated to start at 2:30 PM ET at the beautiful new Cape Town Stadium, and will be televised by ESPN. On the three-way moneyline, Italy is the even money betting favorite, with Paraguay at +285 and the draw at +220.
Italy is the defending champion and is priced as a +250 bet to get to the semifinals. Paraguay is +250 to get to the quarterfinals. They know how to advance out of group play, having down so in 1998 and 2002. They are a -210 betting prop to do just that in this tournament.
The World Cup
Italy vs. Paraguay
Monday, June 14 - 2:30 PM ET
Cape Town Stadium
Betting Odds - Handicap Line: Italy -1/2/+105, Paraguay +1/2/-125
Betting Odds - Moneyline: Italy +100, Paraguay +285, Draw +220
Total: 2 goals (Over -120, Under +100)
Italy is not as talented as it once last time around, but they still appear to be a cut above the other teams that are in Group E, as evidenced by their standing as the betting favorite at -185. They have one of the best goalkeepers in the world in Guianluigi Buffon, who is a veteran of over 100 international matches, and is the key man at Juventus, which had a down season when he was out with injury.
However, those who are going to be betting serious money on this World Cup know that Italy is in a position where they have to reload first before becoming one of the elite players on the world stage.
The roster from the 2006 team that won the World Cup has been depleted to enough of a degree that Italy is just +1400 in the world cup betting odds to win the tournament this year, even though they are ranked fifth in the world by FIFA.
Those players who are remaining are all over 30 years of age, and that kind of thing can catch up to you when you're playing the most serious tournament in the world. Oh, and we might add, when you are not getting the breaks from the officials, as the Azzurri got in its Round of 16 match against Australia in '06, when they got a gift penalty kick in extra time to win it.
Paraguay is only 31st in the world in the FIFA rankings, but they are better than that, and in fact they are the second betting favorite in Group F, at +250, which means that those in the know expect that this team will be competitive.
Of course, as everyone knows, Paraguay will have to go without its best offensive threat, striker Salvador Cabanas, who scored 66 goals for Club America in Mexico's Primera Division but was shot in the head during what was reportedly an attempted robbery in January. he miraculously survived, but doctors did not want to risk the damage that could come from removing the bullet and he is alive, but unable to play.
There are not many players who can pick up the slack, but they hope Roque Santa Cruz can. The problem is that he is brittle, and the talented Manchester City forward has missed some training with the national team. He has been pronounced fit and ready to go - for now, and is a longshot bet at +7000 to score the most goals in this tournament. Another striker, Oscar Cardozo, is hobbled with an ankle injury, which has left his status in doubt.
Paraguay, which is the second betting favorite in Group F at +250,.is a dangerous foe in this round. During the qualifying phase, they scored shutout wins over Brazil and Argentina, who are 1st and 7th in the FIFA rankings, respectively, not to mention +450 and +600 in the betting odds to win this World Cup.
Coach Gerardo Martino has been criticized for perhaps not opening things up as much as he should, but Paraguay may find that a close-to-the-vest approach may work for them here. Yes, they have their share of veterans too, but they may be able to turn the stamina factor in their favor.
What you've got here is quite possibly and overrated team against an underrated team, and we may want to take advantage of some underdog betting odds here with Paraguay in an upset.
JAY'S PLAY: PARAGUAY (+285) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
