World Cup 2010 Preview – Paraguay Draws Inspiration from Cabanas
by Charles Jay
World Cup bettors are well aware that the tournament is filled with great stories, many of them inspirational, and the Paraguayan side on the big stage this year is dedicating its effort to one of its nation's finest players, who was the victim of a shooting incident that has ended his chances of competing for his country this year. It doesn't hurt along the way if you've got talent and experience, and this team has it. Paraguay is a team that has the potential of being a threat to many of the world's finest, and they get to test their mettle right away as they play the defending champions from Italy in their opening match. In Group F, they are listed at +250, while the betting favorite in that group is the Italian side, at -185.
The World Cup
June 11 - July 11
South Africa
FIFA World Cup Betting Odds
To Win Group F
Italy -185
PARAGUAY +250
Slovakia +600
New Zealand +7000
Reports are kind of fuzzy as to how Salvador Cabanas got shot in a Mexico City bar just five months ago, but the fact is that he was lucky to be alive, with a bullet lodged in his skull. Doctors made the judgment call that it was too dangerous to try and remove it, and it is quite likely that he will not competitively again, although he is said to be kicking a ball and going through light workouts. Cabanas' absence is a big blow to the hopes of Paraguay, to be sure, because he was the team's leading scorer during qualifying, and getting through to the second round, for which they are a -210 betting favorite (remember, the top two teams from each group advance) got a bit more difficult. Fortunately for them, though, they don't have a bad draw in this group.
This team is going to be carrying extra emotion into its group play as they dedicated matches to their fallen leader. "He is a great inspiration to us and for us," said coach Gerardo Martino. "To do it in tribute to Salvador is a big motivation. He would have been here if he was fit."
Yes, he would have, but there are some attackers available who will be capable of picking up the slack. One of them is Lucas Barrios, who used his new citizenship to join the team (his mother is from Paraguay) and should being some of the explosive scoring capability he put on display for Borussia Dortmund in the German Bundesliga. The extent of his international experience has been the friendlies that have led up to this World Cup, and he has scored in three of them. Barrios is the co-betting favorite to lead this team in goals, priced at +250.
For the sake of betting information, here are Paraguay’s most recent results in the World Cup:
1990 - Did Not Qualify
1994 - Did Not Qualify
1998 - Second Round
2002 - Second Round
2006 - First Round Exit
The other co-favorite to lead Paraguay in scoring is Roque Santa Cruz (+200 in the betting), who is a big talent, but one who often has injury problems. The Manchester City star, who scored 23 goals in 43 games for the Blackburn Rovers just a couple of seasons ago, is seemingly always bothered by some injury, but he is apparently fit for this trip.
"La Albirroja" also benefits from the presence of Nelson Haedo Valdez, a Borussia Dortmund teammate of Barrios, as well as Oscar Cardozo (+400 betting odds to top this team in scoring), but Cardozo has an ankle injury that is being closely monitored, though Martino insists he is good to go for South Africa, maybe even the first game. A healthy Cardozo, who is a prolific scorer for Benfica (Portugal), would enable Paraguay to have some depth up front in the absence of Cabanas. Christian Riveros is a real standout in the midfield, and he is an occasional threat to score as well.
Of course, when people think of Martino, they think of him as someone who has studied under offensive masters but who stresses a rather tight defensive approach. The best way to describe his backline might be to say that it is greater than the sum of its parts, and the last line of defense is Justo Villar, who got to play in only seven minutes of the last World Cup in Italy, so you know that this veteran of 73 caps is out to make up for lost time.
Paraguay is ranked 31st by FIFA, but they get the respect from the linemaker, which his posted this team at +250 World Cup betting odds to win the group. When you see a team shut out both Brazil and Argentina, as they did in qualifying, you can bet they can play, and even if they play cautiously, they can make it plenty tough for teams in this grouping and beyond to gain a foothold.
