Alvarez vs Charlo predictions are starting to take shape as the biggest fight of the year draws nearer.
The Sept. 30 bout at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas determines the undisputed super middleweight champion, and we can’t wait.
We look at how each fighter is progressing ahead of the highly anticipated fight.
Boxing Odds Side With Canelo
Johnny Nelson believes Charlo can pull off the upset against the 59-2-2 superstar.
“Don’t be surprised if Charlo is the guy that manages to pickpocket Canelo. Canelo is an outstanding fighter, another fighter who’s not the fighter he was but still beats 98% of fighters in the world,” Nelson said.
“Charlo on the other hand, I’m starting to really favor him to pull it off. I think he has all the ingredients to do that.”
Despite what Nelson thinks, we expect most Alvarez vs. Charlo picks to side with the Mexican. He has an incredible record, and after 63 fights, it’s hard to believe he’s still only 33 years old.
He fought earlier this year when scoring a unanimous decision victory over John Ryder, and although it wasn’t the hardest fight for him to win, he barely lost a round.
His only recent loss came in 2022 against Dmitri Bivol in an upset. It was a close fight on the judges’ scorecards, with all three giving it to Bivol 115-113. However, he bounced back with a win over Gennadiy Golovkin.
Boxing betting lines are likely to take action for Alvaraz at -400. He could close around -450 to retain his four middleweight belts.
— BoxingScene.com (@boxingscene) September 18, 2023
Does Charlo Have What It Takes?
Credit to Charlo for posting a 35-1-1 record, but the American hasn’t fought the same level of opposition as Alvarez.
He knocked out Brian Carlos Castano in the rematch last year, which came in May, so he hasn’t fought since. That’s a huge concern ahead of such a big fight, and it’s an interesting tactic from his camp.
He has fought only four times in the last four years, and although 19 of his wins have come by knockout, he could struggle to land the power shots on Alvarez.
Online betting odds have him at +300 to produce the upset, which is a fair line. He’ll be the second-best fighter in the ring on Sept. 30, so he should be the sizable underdog to win.
In 2018, he lost a decision to Tony Harrison. He has improved since, but having those losses on your record isn’t a good look.
Alvarez gave his opponent credit at a recent press day.
“He’s a fighter that hits hard. He’s a good boxer that knows how to use distance. That’s what makes him dangerous,” said Alvarez.
Charlo is also rising in weight class, which is never an easy task. There seem to be more questions than answers with Charlo, but he has enough power to give Alvarez problems.
Going the Distance
Bookmakers have the total rounds number at 10½, and the over has been hammered since markets opened.
Over 10½ rounds currently trades at -320, so bettors believe this fight is likely going the full 12 rounds.
Alvarez doesn’t always look for the knockout, so he will be happy to grind away and win rounds. However, Charlo’s only chance of winning the belts is to headhunt and go for the kill.
That could make betting on this market dangerous, but we also see the fight going the distance. Alvarez will avoid getting hit, and Charlo could be resigned to his fate halfway through the fight.
Taking -320 odds is never easy, but more money could come over the next couple of weeks.