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Battle Royale: Lara vs Zerafa Betting Guide

On Saturday, March 30, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Erislandy “The American Dream” Lara will face Michael “Pretty Boy” Zerafa in a 12-round middleweight bout for the WBA (Regular) World title.

Lara and Zerafa will go to war this weekend, and I’m here to deliver all your boxing betting needs for this WBA middleweight title bout.

Battle Royale: Lara vs Zerafa Betting Guide
Battle Royale: Lara vs Zerafa Betting Guide


Lara vs Zerafa Event Information

  • Date and Time: Saturday, March. 30, 2024 – 08:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: T Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Promotion: TGB Promotions
  • Scheduled Bouts: 11
  • Lara vs Zerafa Live Stream: Box Live
  • Main Event Bout: Tim Tszyu vs. Sebastian Fundora
  • Co-Main Event Bout: Rolando Romero vs. Issac Cruz
  • Moneyline Probability: Lara – 77.8% (-350) Zerafa – 28.6% (+250)


Lara vs Zerafa Betting Odds

Lara vs Zerafa: Fighter Previews

Erislandy “The American Dream” Lara

Putting his WBA junior middleweight championship on the line will mark Erislandy Lara’s return to boxing after a 22-month absence. The Cuban southpaw, who is 40 years old and ranked #3 by The Ring at middleweight, previously competed at 154 pounds and earned a junior middleweight belt before moving up to middleweight to capture the WBA title.

Despite his participation in past major events, including a bout with one of boxing’s greats, Canelo Alvarez, he’ll be eager to show off his talents at the first live event on Amazon; the only question that remains is whether or not he can battle the ring rust and return as the same fighter we knew before.



Michael “Pretty Boy” Zerafa

When turning pro in 2011, Zerafa went on to collect a 15–0 record with 19 knockout victories, proving himself to be a top prospect from Down Under. However, his first fight outside Australia saw him lose against Arif Magomedov (UD 12) in Russia. Following a handful of comeback victories, he was then stopped in his tracks when Peter Quillin knocked him out in the fifth.

After a string of eight victories, the 31-year-old stepped up his competition level again, but Kell Brook (UD 12) proved too much in England. Zerafa was 1-1 against Jeff Horn, shocking his compatriot with a ninth-round technical knockout but then losing by majority decision in their second meeting. Four bouts have passed since then, including victories against fellow Aussies Anthony Mundine and Isaac Hardman. He now attempts to raise the bar once more with a veteran in Lara lined up for Saturday, and he might be one of the best boxing picks this weekend.



Lara vs Zerafa: The Tale of the Tape

Pro Record
Win/Loss (Last 5)
WBA (Regular) Middleweight
Championship Titles
672 days
493 days
15 years
13 years


Lara vs Zerafa: Main Event Breakdown and Analysis

With a 672-day absence and a championship still around his waist, Lara is proof that the middleweight division is dwindling. He’s arguably one of the least desirable champions in boxing, and the ring rust he brings into this bout is so extreme that it’s difficult to back him.

During his professional tenure, he was most recognized for his speedy footwork and power; however, some would argue the former is beginning to disappear. Now, coupled with a two-year hiatus, his age also threatens the explosiveness he was known for previously. While Zerafa is far from the elite-level opponents he’s faced in the past, he won’t back down and should hold a speed and durability advantage based on age alone.

Lara vs Zerafa The Best Betting Pick: Zerafa Moneyline (+250)

Skill-for-skill, Lara is undeniably the more technically sound and skillful fighter of the two. However, there are too many unknowns to back him at the current Las Vegas odds. The durability factor of Zerafa, alongside the fact that Lara’s punch and move style has notably been exchanged for in-the-pocket brawls, could play right into the style of the Aussie, who embodies an in-ring brawl.

It’s a difficult fight to predict, but the sportsbook odds make it easier. Lara, while the Cuban boxing style has gifted him with a glorious career, cannot expect to be sidelined for so long and continue to remain at the top of the pack.



  • Lara hasn’t boxed for 672 days
  • Zerafa is riding a four-fight win streak since 2021
  • Zerafa has never been knocked out as a professional
  • Lara has never been knocked out as a professional


WBA Regular Middleweight Title Bout: The Crystal Ball Predictions

In this WBA title bout, a quick rub of my crystal ball reveals that the age and layoff of Lara will finally prove too much, and a passing of the torch moment will occur as the overlooked Zerafa wins on the judge’s scorecards.

Potential Bets from Zerafa Win By Decision:

  • Zerafa Moneyline [+250]
  • Over 10 ½ Rounds [-200]
  • Zerafa To Win By Decision [+600]
  • Fight To Go The Distance – Yes [-175]


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