The sportsbook has Collazo at -2500 to win outright and Diagan at +900 to cause an upset.
Collazo’s First Title Defense
The 26-year-old American is all the rage with boxing betting markets, which could have something to do with his opponent.
He’s a fine boxer in his own right, but it’s not common to see an inexperienced 7-0 fighter as such a short favorite.
However, he looked good when winning the WBO title against Melvin Jerusalem. He scored a retired knockout decision when Jerusalem couldn’t continue after Round 7.
That was a four-star fight against a 20-2 fighter, so his inexperience didn’t mean much in his biggest fight to date. He should find this slightly easier, which has been graded as a three-star fight.
Our worry isn’t whether Collazo will win the fight but whether he wins by knockout. Sport betting markets have him at -400 to end the fight before the final bell, and he should get many opportunities to land the big blow.
Collazo, despite being the overwhelming favorite, isn’t underestimating Diagan.
“I think it’s a very interesting fight, he comes from the Philippines, where a lot of good boxers come from and they come to fight,” Collazo said. “I know that his last two bouts he has upset the favorite and won. He’s coming in with nothing to lose and I think it’s going to be a great fight.”
“It’s going to be an action-packed fight. I’m going to demonstrate my skills and my I.Q in the ring as always and put on a show in front of my fans.”
Diagan Has Nothing to Lose
Diagan is ranked 11th in the world, so he can’t be completely discounted as a massive underdog.
However, there are big holes in his 10-3 record, which has come mostly against inferior opponents.
The 27-year-old, nicknamed “Hellboy,” lost consecutive fights in 2022 by knockout and unanimous decision. The first came against April Abne before losing to an 11-3 fighter, so the form doesn’t check out.
He has been more impressive since the setback. He scored a TKO win against a 20-6 fighter before winning by split decision against Huu Toan Le, who was 6-0.
However, Las Vegas odds don’t want a bar of him, and that’s fair. We expect him to start slowly, which could see his boxing live betting odds move to around +1200. There isn’t much value in his current odds and a win would be a shock.
We don’t mind the odd boxing underdog, but Diagan doesn’t seem deserving of a place in a title fight. He will do well to come out of the 12-round fight without getting knocked out.
Collazo vs Diagan Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting between Collazo and Diagan.
Collazo vs Diagan Fight Information
- Fight: Oscar Collazo (7-0) vs Garen Diagan (10-3)
- Location: Coliseo Roberto Clemente, San Juan, Puerto Rico
- Day/Time: Saturday, Aug. 26, 8 p.m. ET
- Collazo vs Diagan Live Stream: Box Live
Collazo vs Diagan Betting Lines
Collazo Clear Betting Pick
The best value is taking Collazo to win by knockout at -400. We can’t see this fight going the distance, and we certainly can’t see Diagan winning.
Therefore, it should be a comfortable KO victory for the favorite, who has beaten much better fighters throughout his career.