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Curiel vs Nontshinga 2 Deep Dive: Analysis, Boxing Odds and Betting Preview

Adrian “El Gato” Curiel and Sivenathi “Special One” Nontshinga will compete in a 12-round light flyweight contest for the IBF World championship at the Auditorium Guelaguetza in Oaxaca, Mexico on Friday, February 16.

It’s a rematch the boxing world has desired to witness, and Las Vegas boxing odds have flipped the script as opposed to the first meeting. With that said, I’m here to cover all your betting needs for this highly anticipated flyweight duel.

Curiel vs Nontshinga 2 Deep Dive: Analysis, Boxing Odds & Betting Preview
Curiel vs Nontshinga 2 Deep Dive: Analysis, Boxing Odds & Betting Preview


Curiel vs Nontshinga II Event Information

  1. Date & Time: Friday, Feb. 16, 2024 – 10:00 p.m. ET
  2. Location: Auditorium Guelaguetza, Oaxaca, MX
  3. Promotion: Matchroom Boxing
  4. Scheduled Bouts: 8
  5. Live Stream: Box Live
  6. Main Event Bout: Adrian Curiel vs Sivenathi Nontshinga
  7. Moneyline Probability: Curiel (-175) – Nontshinga (+145)


Curiel vs Nontshinga 2 Betting Odds


Curiel vs Nontshinga II: Fighter Previews

Adrian “El Gato” Curiel

As one of the most shocking upsets of 2023, Curiel’s stunning KOvictory against his South African opponent was the stuff of legend.

In the second round of their highly anticipated fight in Monaco, the Mexican knocked out the reigning champion Nontshinga (12-1, 9 KOs) with a single blow in under five minutes, completely turning the narrative on its head while shattering the oddsmaker’s opinion which had him at +550 pre-fight for those of us betting on boxing fights.

This Friday, the 24-year-old Curiel will be making his first defenseof his World championship on home soil. Inseeking to replicate his success last November,he is anxious to show that his shocking knockout performance wasn’t an isolated incident.


Sivenathi “Special One” Nontshinga

After suffering his first career loss, Nontshinga will striveto regain his former title, which he earned in 2022 in Hermosillo, Mexico, by defeating Hector Flores. In turn, this will allow him to continue working towards his previousgoal of uniting the division.

After his knockout defeat, the former champion may be considered a “one-and-done”fighter. Touted as “The Special One,” the South African was anticipated to become a divisional rising star. He supposedly planned to challenge the other champions of the weight classafter his victory against Curiel; unfortunately, that didn’t go according to plan.

Boxing and sports betting are brutal industries; most of you reading this understand entirely. The betting lines have shifted from chalk to plus-money on Nontshinga between the two bouts, but now we’re in dangerous territory, as Nontshinga has much more to prove.

Often, whenever a boxer loses their first major bout, they almost always lose their second, even in upsets. However, the Joshua-Ruiz saga is one of the few prominent outliers, and the Rainbow Nation representative has the talent to replicate it.


Curiel vs Nontshinga II: The Tale of the Tape

South Africa
Pro Record
Win/Loss (Last 5)
IBF World (Junior Flyweight)
Championship Titles
104 days
104 days
7 years
6 years

Curiel vs Nontshinga II: Main Event Breakdown and Analysis

We didn’t have much data to work with in the first encounter. Still, Nontshinga did a decent job of containing Curiel’s pressure and output in the opening round until Curiel delivered a pinpoint, and some would say, “lucky” blow. The counterpunch was flawless; there’s no denying this, but Nontshinga’s jab in the leadup was slightly reckless.

As a pressure fighter, Curiel stands tall with his guard up, aims for the body and head with powerful hooks, and counters jabs with the same force. Despite this style, he hasn’t been a successful power puncher throughout his career, with only five KO/TKO victories from 29 bouts and only one in the previous five years.

Nontshinga has excellent ring mobility and is at home fighting from the outside, where he can keep his opponents at arm’s length with a quick jab and then unleash lightning-fast counterpunches. He isn’t known as a power puncher, but boxing betting fans know he is undoubtedly the more skilled technician of the two.


The Best Betting Pick: Nontshinga ML (+145)

Based on betting ethics alone, we cannot ignore Nontshinga at plus-money odds. It’s not every day we see a -1000 favorite shift to a +145 underdog; without the knockout, we’ll likely see Curiel struggle.

As if his already violent fighting style weren’t bad enough, Curiel often loses his composure and falls forward when using his right hand. You can almost bet that he won’t be able to control himself from attempting to land another one of them after hitting the punch of a lifetime the previous time.

When Curiel acts too aggressively on Friday night, Nontshinga can take advantage of his quickness and excellent counterpunching to win.

If Nontshinga lives up to his reputation as a blue-chip prospect, he ought to be able to defeat Curiel in this match. He has the upper hand on paper because of his height and reach, and he has faced tougher opponents, thus making him an excellent pick at our sportsbook as a betting underdog.

Check our our experts boxing picks, predictions and boxing betting lines, place your best bets and win big now.


  1. All four of Curiel’s career losses were by decision
  2. Nontshinga was undefeated prior to his first clash with Curiel
  3. Nontshinga entered the first meeting with Curiel as a -1000 favorite


IBF Junior Flyweight Title Main Event: The Crystal Ball

In this IBF championship rematch, a quick rub of my crystal ball reveals that Nontshinga will right the wrongs of the first bout and weather an early storm from Curiel. As the fight goes deep beyond the sixth and seventh rounds, the champ will lose composure and eventually surrender to a technical boxing masterclass before losing a unanimous decision.


Potential Bets from a Nontshinga Win by Decision:



Questions Of The Day

What is Adrian Curiel’s Pro Boxing Record?

The Mexican boxer has a 24-4-1 record in his pro career.

What’s the best prop bet for the Curiel vs Nontshinga boxing fight?

I believe this fight will be won by decision, bet on the fight going the distance at -165 odds

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