WBA, WBC Strawweight Titles
Boxing odds have Seniesa Estrada heavily favored to retain her strawweight titles against Leonela Paola Yudica on Saturday.
Boxing odds tonight have the champion at -1600 to win, so she’s expected to improve on her 24-0 record. However, Yudica is a tough 19-1-3 fighter who fought for the IBF flyweight title last year.
The sportsbook isn’t giving her much respect at +750, but upsets happen in Las Vegas.
Super Bad Is Super Good
Estrada, or commonly known as “Super Bad,” is a very good fighter, as boxing betting odds suggest.
The 31-year-old has managed to avoid being beaten throughout her career, including a tough fight against Tina Rupprecht earlier this year.
That win came via unanimous decision, but it wasn’t close. She dominated the fight, winning all 10 rounds on the judges’ scorecards, which isn’t easy to do.
The American is grateful for having a chance to defend her titles on primetime.
“This is just the beginning. We’re at a time in women’s boxing where all the top women are starting to headline,” Estrada said. “So, I’m just grateful and happy with Top Rank and ESPN for allowing me to be one of the female fighters that is leading the way for the next generation and for all the women in the sport.”
She should relish the opportunity to fight in front of a big audience in Las Vegas. She defeated Marlen Esparza at the MGM Grand in 2019, so she should enjoy getting back to this environment.
If she gets off to a fast start, which she usually does, live betting markets are likely to firm her odds to around -2500.
Lack of KO Power the Worry
Being the significant online gambling underdog comes with plenty of criticism, and it’s the lack of knockout power for us.
Despite having 19 wins on her record, only one of those came by knockout. Winning by knockout isn’t overly common with strawweight fighters, but she’s unlikely to win on points.
Estrada is one of the best boxers around when it comes to winning rounds. She’s active and the judges reward that. Therefore, Yudica needs to up her work rate to have any chance of scoring an upset.
Following her first career loss against Arely Mucino for the IBF flyweight title, she rebounded with a moderate split decision win against an 11-5 fighter.
Sports betting markets don’t give her much chance based on that performance, and it’s not hard to see why.
Estrada vs Yudica Head-to-Head
This will be the first meeting between Estrada and Yudica.
Estrada vs Yudica Fight Information
- Fighters: Estrada (19-1-3) vs Yudica (19-1-3)
- Location: Palms Casino Resort, Las Vegas, NV
- Day/Time: Friday, July 28, 10 p.m. ET
- Estrada vs Yudica Live Stream: Box Live
Estrada vs Yudica Betting Lines
|Seniesa Estrada||-1600||0 8½ -900|
|Leonela Paola Yudica||+750||U 8½+550|
The odds in this chart are posted on the time of publication of the article. They are subject to change without previous notice.
Estrada vs Yudica Picks and Prediction
We can’t look past Estrada, who has the titles and the class edge.
She is the more complete fighter. No disrespect to Yudica, but we don’t think they’re on the same level.
Take Estrada to win by decision, which pays a healthy -450.
Estrada is listed at -1600 in our Vegas Boxing lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Estrada, you have a chance to win $6. Yudica is +750, offering a chance to win $750 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Estrada a 94.12% chance to win, with Yudica at 11.76%.