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Inoue vs Kim Prediction, Best Boxing Bet for January 24: ‘The Monster’ Returns

 

Boxing in 2025, we’re so back, baby! And yes, Naoya Inoue returns this Friday to face an opponent in Ye Joon Kim, who isn’t of the same caliber. Still, after his previous opponent pulled out in December, we know ‘The Monster’ loves to stay active, and whoever was available, he was going to take as opposed to wasting a full training camp.

Naoya Inoue -Shyuhei Yokoyama / Yomiuri / The Yomiuri Shimbun via AFP

Inoue, with his pound-for-pound greatness starting early in the year, we naturally look toward the sportsbook betting lines and seek value on the unbeaten bantamweight king. Well, look no further; I’ve done the hard work, and below, you’ll find my complete breakdown and boxing betting picks for Inoue vs. Kim.

Inoue vs. Kim Event Information

  • Date/Time: Saturday, January. 24, 2025 – 06:00 a.m. ET
  • Location: Ariake Arena, Tokyo, Japan
  • Promotion: Ohashi Promotions, Teiken/Top-Rank
  • Scheduled Bouts: 5
  • How to Watch: DAZN
  • Main Event Bout: Naoya Inoue vs. Ye Joon Kim
  • Co-Main Event Bout: Jin Sasaki vs. Shoki Sakai

 

Inoue vs. Kim Preview and Betting Breakdown

Naoya ‘The Monster’ Inoue

Boxing betting fans rarely complain when the ‘Monster’ is competing, and this Friday, we’ll be treated to another Inoue appearance as the pound-for-pound king takes on a short-notice replacement in Ye Joon Jim. Unfortunately for the challenger to Inoue’s complete collection of bantamweight gold, the entire world has already written him off, and it’s easy to see why.

Inoue, 31, is one of just three boxers to become an undisputed champion in two weight classes during the four-belt era. Highly known for his unruly punching power, he combines an 89% KO percentage with slick, technical attributes to make him one of the most complete and desirable fighters in the sport’s history.

 

Ye ‘Pacqui-Weather’ Joon-Kim

Ye Joon-Kim, who’s relatively unknown to Western boxing fans, might be a late replacement for Inoue’s December pullout opponent, Sam Goodman… Still, the South Korean standout hasn’t let this affect his confidence as he prepares for his career’s biggest and most important fight.

For the most part, he’s only competed in Korea but is notably 2-0 when competing in Japan. This lack of elite-level experience is one of the reasons why he’s one of the biggest underdogs at BetUS Sportsbook this weekend. However, he has power and durability that could make Friday’s contest an interesting one.

 

What Joon-Kim Said About His Life-Changing Opportunity

With a chance to shock the boxing world to its core, Joon-Kim believes he’ll shock the undisputed champ with his underrated abilities:

“I don’t think Inoue has ever faced a fighter like me before,” Joon-Kim told boxing news outlets. I can imagine what he’s thinking right now, but I want to say he’s completely wrong. I think he will understand when we get in the ring and we exchange punches for the first time. I’ve studied him for a long time, and all my practice and fighting patterns are based on fighting Inoue.

Inoue vs. Kim: The Tale of the Tape

Naoya Inoue 
Ye Joon Kim
Japan
Country
South Korea
31
Age 
32
28-0-0
Pro Record
21-2-2
25
KOs
13
5’5” 
Height 
5’4” 
67.5”
Reach 
-
W/W/W/W/W
Win/Loss (Last 5)
W/W/L/W/W
W
Championship Titles
W
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
143 days 
Inactivity 
260 days 
12 years 
Pro
12 years 

Find our expert boxing betting tips here.

 

Inoue v Kim: Fight Breakdown

What I find most interesting isn’t the apparent skillset differences between these fighters but the fact that Kim highlighted how he’s “studied” Inoue for “some time,” as prior to the announcement of this fight, Inoue probably hadn’t even heard of Joon-Kim whatsoever. It feels like a fortunate situation for the Korean, but either way, the huge underdog has a massive chance, and based on his words, he has the power to do what nobody else has and give The Monster trouble.

Looking at Inoue, no matter whether the opponent is high-level or not, he doesn’t present many weaknesses, including his zombie-like ability to take shots when opponents can land on him. It would be bonkers for us to doubt Inoue in this spot, but Joon-Kim has the advantage of being completely overlooked and with nothing to lose, so never say never. Regarding motivation, Joon-Kim holds all the chips as he’ll be significantly more pumped and excited heading into the Ariake Arena.

Yes, Inoue is the rightful favorite, and sure, his chance of adding another highlight reel knockout to the collection is likely. However, I have a funny feeling this fight will be more explosive than most expect for as long as it lasts. Inoue is the obvious pick, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fail to collect a knockout until the mid-rounds. Of course, The Monster has had early finishes before, but most of those came versus overly aggressive foes. For the most part, he instills patience in the early rounds to find his rhyme and reach and better understand his opponent’s approach.

If the words of Joon-Kim are true, he’ll go out on his shield, swinging for the KO, at the very least. Causing an upset, on the other hand, might be a stretch, but in this sport, we’re always one punch away from another Buster Douglas moment!

  • Inoue is undefeated as a pro boxer
  • Kim is a backup fighter to replace
  • Kim has never been knocked out as a pro boxer
  • Inoue has seen over 3 ½ rounds in 6 of his previous 7 bouts

 

Inoue vs Kim Prediction: Bet This Fight Over 3.5 Rounds

The -10000 boxing betting line on Naoya Inoue speaks volumes. Kim, with a +2000 underdog price tag, is given a 4.8% implied probability chance of winning this contest, as it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know which side, as a bettor, you should be backing.

However, with such a juice ML number, hunting down the online betting value in this bout solely relies on our ability to seek value in the prop market. In turn, we have no choice but to make a more refined prediction, specifically on how long or short we expect this bout to last.

Despite the clear skill level gap between Inoue and Kim, the latter is tough, and we should expect a cautious approach when faced with the biggest challenge of his career. As a result, this could lead the fight to surviving for at least four or five rounds, and with the over/under set at 3 ½ rounds, backing the over at -105 isn’t a bad price whatsoever. It might be a nervy four rounds (Yes, our butt-cheeks are always clinched when fading the under on The Monster), and while Kim is facing a high likelihood of receiving his first career loss by knockout, we can put faith in his defensive ability to avoid a stoppage for at least four rounds.

Bet This Pick: Inoue vs Kim Over 3.5 Rounds (-105)

 

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets

 

Questions Of The Day

Who’s fighting on the Inoue vs. Kim undercard?

  • Jin Sasaki vs. Shoki Sakai (OPBF & WBO Asia Pacific Welterweight Title Bout)
  • Goki Kobayashi vs. Yuni Takada (WBO Asia Pacific Strawweight Title Bout)
  • Toshiki Shimomachi vs. Misaki Hirano (Japanese Super Bantamweight Title Bout)
  • Tsubasa Narai vs. Kai Watanabe (130lb Bout)

When time does the Inoue vs. Kim fight start?

  • When: January 24
  • Event Start Time: 04:15 AM ET
  • Main event ring walks: 6 AM ET (approx)

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