Lara vs Garcia 9/14 Boxing Picks, Predictions

In the penultimate bout before Canelo Alvarez defends his title against Edgar Berlanga, it’ll be former two-division champion Garcia making his middleweight debut versus Lara. Can the career welterweight who’s fought just one bout at 154 and makes his inaugural appearance at 160 prove the oddsmakers wrong?

To answer that and more, join us today for our complete co-main event breakdown of Lara vs. Garcia, including updated odds, fight analysis and the best boxing betting picks.

One night, one stacked card, endless action. Get ready for an unforgettable fight night on 9/14. 🥊#CaneloBerlanga #LaraGarcia #PlantMcCumby #RollyJaimes pic.twitter.com/efR4Q1Htu8

— Premier Boxing Champions (@premierboxing) September 6, 2024

Lara vs. Garcia Fight Information

• Date & Time: Saturday, Sept. 14, 08:00 p.m. ET
• Location: T Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
• Promotion: TGB Promotions/Matchroom Boxing
• Scheduled Bouts: 10
• How to Watch: Prime Video
• Main Event Bout: Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga
• Co-Main Event Bout: Erislandy Lara vs. Danny Garcia

Lara vs. Garcia Betting Odds

Age Nothing But a Number for ‘The American Dream’

Aged 41, Erislandy Lara possesses 16 years of professional experience. For most of his career, he was a pillar of the super welterweight division. However, in the latter stages of his pro tenure, it’s no surprise that he wanted to seek glory elsewhere in a higher weight class, with less weight cutting required and more potential to focus on the fighting rather than outside factors.

While some of us questioned Lara’s move to middleweight in 2021, he quickly shut down the granddad comments by flatlining Thomas LaManna to collect the vacant WBA strap at 160 pounds. He has now made two successful defenses in the same fashion, proving that age isn’t anything but a number.

We won’t dance around the obvious. Lara isn’t as fast, elusive or fluid as he once was, but if the term “power is the last attribute to leave a fighter” is anything to go by, Lara would be the perfect example of this. He won four of his previous five bouts via KO/TKO, and certainly presents a dangerous threat to Garcia’s 160-pound debut this weekend for online betting.

Erislandy Lara is accurate 🇨🇺💥#LaraGarcia #CaneloBerlanga
pic.twitter.com/cmp1Z5hIrw

— #RingsideFracas (@Ringside_Fracas) September 9, 2024

Danny ‘Swift’ Garcia: Testing Dangerous Waters

This fight may have been more relevant five to seven years ago. Still, following a 26-month layoff, Danny Garcia will be more than willing to waltz right back into the limelight and make his middleweight debut with a championship up for grabs.

Despite never fighting at middleweight, Garcia is no stranger to the big leagues as a former two-division champion. The American, now 35 years old, previously held gold as a light welterweight and welterweight fighter, including famous victories over the likes of Erik Morales and Amir Khan.

Lara Believes Activity Could Be Crucial vs Garcia

During a recent interview with The Ring, Lara explained how his recent fight earlier this year could be a factor:

“Absolutely, I think being active and getting that fight in against Zerafa was important,” he said. “I felt sharp and strong in that fight, and I’m coming into this one with momentum. Danny is a great fighter, but being inactive can affect you. I’m looking to take advantage of that.”

.@laraboxing is like fine wine 🍷. He’s getting better with age. His punch potency is becoming more powerful too, with 4 of his last 5 fights ending by KO 💥.

Lara defends his WBA Middleweight world title against Danny Garcia Saturday, Sept. 14 on @SportsonPrime. #LaraGarcia… pic.twitter.com/Xx9LpLF0pB

— Premier Boxing Champions (@premierboxing) August 25, 2024

Lara vs. Garcia: The Tale of the Tape

Lara v Garcia: Skillset Analysis

You will instantly notice the commonality of Garcia’s pro career defeats against Errol Spence, Shawn Porter and Keith Turman. Each of these losses occurred when he became a welterweight, with his success and undefeated status fading once he faced larger and stronger opponents. While he’s 7-3 at 147 pounds, this pales in comparison to his 30-0 dominance in lower classes, making it difficult to envision success for him as a middleweight.

The obvious upside for Garcia is Lara’s age of 41. That said, the heavy-hitting Cuban has notably adapted over time, as we’ve seen him present a more parsimonious approach with those power strikes that have been so cautious yet precise.

At 41 years old, Erislandy Lara is looking to keep his title as the oldest current boxing champion. #CaneloBerlanga | #LaraGarcia
LIVE on @PPV_COM pic.twitter.com/inAaiaYJjG

— PPV.COM (@ppv_com) September 8, 2024

For Garcia to succeed against Lara, he must overcome a significant reach disadvantage and find his way on the inside, where he’s most at risk. He isn’t the most prolific knockout artist, so he’ll likely plan to win this on the scorecards. To do so, he must find his jab early and be sure that any power punches are rapidly met with quick exits from Lara’s range.

Lara is great at landing the jab to straight left combo, and honestly, disguising this and recycling such a combo for most of this bout will be his best chance to land the KO shot. The underdog put up big numbers throughout 12 rounds versus Spence and, most recently, Jose Benavidez Jr.

However, size and a lack of activity could be serious obstacles to overcome and repeat such success for Garcia, who is a +200 underdog at the BetUS sportsbook.

From a Betting Perspective

Garcia will be Lara’s most experienced and arguably toughest challenge in years. However, maintaining a high output while staying out of range in a new weight class after two years of inactivity feels like one-two-many aspects to overcome.

Lara has been a technical wonder and precise power puncher for a long time. He’s older, less fluid, and definitely likes pocket fighting in his older years, yet this displayed a more patient and calculating fighter who’ll know he has the power and range to prevent Garcia from getting on the inside, thus making it a very difficult night for the challenger.

From a boxing betting perspective, the Lara moneyline at -240 isn’t horrible, but Garcia’s durability should allow him to take this bout into deep waters where the over 10 ½ rounds can be found for the same price. I expect a Lara dub for the aforementioned reasons. Still, Garcia’s chin will stunt his knockout streak, and by betting on the total, we can also avoid the underdog’s potential of a surprise upset.

My Best Bet: Over 10 ½ Rounds (-240)

6 years ago, Shawn Porter defeated Danny Garcia by UD12 to win the vacant WBC welterweight title. Porter becomes a two-time welterweight champion.
pic.twitter.com/u7weus9aCO

— 𝑲𝒏𝒐𝒄𝒌𝒐𝒖𝒕 𝑱𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒏𝒂𝒍𝒔 (@KOJournals) September 8, 2024

Crystal Ball Predictions

In this WBA middleweight championship bout, a quick glance at my crystal ball reveals that a long layoff and size disadvantage, coupled with Lara’s patience and elite skills, will see the champ retain the gold on the judge’s scorecards.

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Potential Bets from a Lara Win by Decision:

• Lara Moneyline [-240]
• Over 10 ½ Rounds [-240]
• Lara To Win By Decision
• Fight To Go The Distance/Yes

Bet on these Lara vs. Garcia Props Picks

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets

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