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Lopez vs Abe: Boxing Odds & Betting Preview

On Saturday, March 2, at Turning Stone Resort & Casino in Verona, NY. Luis Alberto “El Venado” Lopez will face Reiya Abe for the IBF World Championship in a 12-round featherweight fight.

Lopez and Abe will trade blows in an early afternoon scrap, and with that in mind, I’m here to cover all your boxing betting needs for the highly contested bout.

Lopez vs Abe: Boxing Odds & Betting Preview
Lopez vs Abe: Boxing Odds & Betting Preview

 

Lopez vs Abe Event Information

  • Date & Time: Saturday, March. 2, 2024 – 01:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Turning Stone Resort and Casino, Verona, NY
  • Promotion: Top Rank
  • Scheduled Bouts: 9
  • Live Stream: Box Live
  • Main Event Bout: Luis Alberto Lopez vs Reiya Abe
  • Co-Main Event: Otabek Kholmatov vs. Ray Ford
  • Moneyline Probability: Lopez – 89.3% (-835) Abe – 15.7% (+535)

 

Lopez vs Abe Betting Odds

 

Lopez vs Abe: Fighter Previews

Luis Alberto “El Venado” Lopez

Online betting fans saw Luis Alberto Lopez win a tightly fought decision against Joet Gonzalez in September. Although all three judges ruled in his favor, others thought the outcome may have been different, thus sparking debate on his potential versus the upper echelon of the featherweight category.

‘El Venado’ was considered the top contender in the 126-pound category pre-fight, but should we begin to doubt him now?

Lopez delivered a boxing masterpiece to defeat Josh Warrington in 2022 and win the IBF world championship. He then landed a remarkable right uppercut against Michael Conlan to secure his first successful defense of the belt.

However, after a tough battle with Gonzalez, doubts have arisen about the Mexican’s aura of invincibility, particularly when positioned alongside previous defeats to Ruben Villa in 2019 and Abraham Montoya in 2018.

  • Lopez Moneyline Odds: -835

 

Reiya Abe

After a challenging 2019 when Abe drew with Taiki Minamoto and lost unanimously to Ryo Sagawa, the Japanese boxer has now won six consecutive bouts to place himself right into title contention.

Most recently, he defeated former two-weight-class world champion Kiko Martinez by outboxing him over 12 rounds, notably marking the greatest triumph of his professional career.

In turn, Abe’s performance against Martinez could now cause some apprehension among Lopez supporters ahead of Saturday’s competition at the Turning Stone Resort & Casino, but does the Japanese up-and-comer have what it takes to overcome his +535 boxing betting line?

  • Abe Moneyline Odds:+535

 

 

Lopez vs Abe: The Tale of the Tape

Lopez
Abe
Mexico
Country
Japan
30
Age 
30
29-2-0
Pro Record
25-3-1
2
KOs
2
5’4” 
Height 
5’7” 
66.5”
Reach 
-
W/W/W/W/W
Win/Loss (Last 5)
W/W/W/W/W
IBF World (Featherweight)
Championship Titles
-
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
169 days 
Inactivity 
329 days 
8 years 
Pro
10 years 

 

Lopez vs Abe: Main Event Breakdown & Analysis

Lopez has significant punching power, excellent shot selection, and a granite chin. However, he has not fought the worthiest opponents in his weight class outside Warrington, and we all know how that contest went down.

Abe stands at five feet seven and a half inches, making him one of Lopez’s taller and more agile opponents. This physical attribute complements his boxing strategy, which involves being on the defensive, probing the jab, and delivering a straight left when his opponents attempt to get on the inside. On the other hand, with 10 out of 25 victories by knockout, he’s not the most powerful puncher,

Looking at Martinez and his inability to properly narrow the distance on Abe and his difficulty connecting with his powerful blows highlights Lopez’s potential difficulty in stopping his weekend foe. Although Lopez is not 37 years old, his height of five foot four is close to Martinez’s, which should enable Abe to use his style without complications.

With that said, as the b-side, there is a distinction between impressing the judges and receiving a decision victory. Lopez is under contract with Top Rank and Bob Arum; therefore, if the fight is close, don’t be surprised if he receives the nod.

 

The Best Betting Pick: Lopez To Win By Decision (-110)

Las Vegas odds aren’t giving us much wiggle room with the Lopez moneyline, but as boxing bettors, we’re more than used to this ongoing struggle by now. Therefore, to the prop market, we go, as a precise prediction on this fight’s outcome is required to find significant betting value.

In this particular matchup, Abe’s durability has been a noteworthy aspect throughout his career. In 29 pro bouts, he’s never been stopped by KO/TKO, and versus Lopez, he’ll own a huge height and reach advantage, which should allow him to punish attempts at entering the pocket if approached too much, similar to the Martinez bout.

With that said, the likelihood of this contest going to the scorecards is high, and with an expected winner in Lopez, we can back the Mexican to win on points and bolster our betting odds to -110.

 

  • In 31 pro boxing bouts, Lopez has never been knocked out
  • In 29 pro boxing bouts, Abe has never been knocked out
  • Lopez has won 2 of his 3 IBF title defenses by decision
  • Abe has gone the distance in 9 consecutive pro bouts

 

IBF Featherweight Title Main Event: The Crystal Ball Betting Picks

In this orthodox v southpaw matchup, a quick rub of my crystal ball reveals that the aggression and power element of Lopez’s game will see him awarded a decision victory, as the lack of power and hit-and-move style of Abe won’t be enough to convince the judges otherwise.

 

Potential Boxing Bets from a Lopez Win By Decision:

 

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