It will be a fiery chess match when Michael Conlan clashes with Luis Alberto Lopez for his IBF featherweight title. The Irishman, Conlan, is fighting on home soil and earns the favorite spot per the boxing lines. He has recovered strongly after his first defeat, but Lopez could be his toughest opponent, as the Mexican just beat the former top featherweight. However, Conlan will not be denied this time.
Lopez Needs to Go Hard for All 12
Lopez needed to topple a featherweight giant like Josh Warrington to finally get recognized. And yet he still finds himself as an underdog on the boxing betting odds. The Mexican is diminutive even for the division and will need to overcome the size disadvantage and outbox Conlan for all 12 rounds.
Against Warrington, Lopez won the first half of the fight. But he took his foot off the pedal in the latter half and had to edge out a decision. Part of that was due to the home crowd’s influence against Lopez. This time around, the Belfast crowd will be even more raucous and sway the judges.
Lopez may be a Mexican. But he does not have that stereotypical Mexican style where he is overly aggressive. However, he does hit the body hard, and had a one-punch body shot KO of Isaac Lowe in 2021. Conlan is a tough boxer, so Lopez will be hard-pressed to finish him. But if he can chip away at him, he may just finish stronger. It’s worth betting online.
Conlan’s Fight to Lose
Conlan may be the challenger, but he’s the uncrowned champion in the eyes of many. Sure, he lost to Leigh Wood in a title fight, but it was a fight he was winning until the KO that broke boxing news. And Conlan lost primarily because he gassed. This time around, the Irishman has upped his endurance and will be more measured in his approach.
Michael Conlan defeats Karim Guerfi in the 1st round🍀🇮🇪 pic.twitter.com/5UQgXigTcO
— Scott Oneill (@scotton49489131) December 10, 2022
But that’s not to say that Conlan will pull back on his punches. The 31-year-old fights with his heart and he’ll hunt the finish on Lopez if it materializes. He has the height and reach advantage here and can either pick Lopez apart from a distance or brawl with him inside.
Lopez may not humor Conlan in a brawl. Instead, the champ will likely clinch and look for ways to neutralize Conlan’s power. It may be a highly tactical battle not unlike Haney vs Lomachenko albeit not quite as advanced. Either way, Conlan just needs to stay composed.
Lopez vs Conlan Head-to-Head
The challenger dwarfs the champion here. Conlan is four inches taller with a 2.5-inch reach advantage. They both box in the orthodox stance though Conlan can switch. Lopez is two years younger but has fought in more pro bouts.
Lopez vs Conlan Fight Information
- Fighters: Lopez (C) (27-2-0, 15 KOs) vs Conlan (18-1-0, 9 KOs)
- Location: SSE Arena, Belfast, Ireland
- Day/Time: Saturday, May 27, 5:00 p.m. ET
- Lopez vs Conlan Live stream: Box Live
Lopez vs Conlan Betting Lines
Lopez vs Conlan Picks and Prediction
Unless Conlan is too caught up in the spotlight, he should be able to edge Lopez here. Conlan is the bigger and more polished boxer. He’s the rightful favorite as far as boxing picks are concerned. Furthermore, the crowd will boost his appeal to the judges. In a close fight, bet online on the Irishman to bring home the belt.
The Conlan are listed at -135 in our Vegas Boxing lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Conlan, you have a chance to win $74. The Lopez is +105, offering a chance to win $105 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Conlan a 57.45% chance to win, with Lopez at 48.78%.
