He is no Errol Spence, Jr., but WBA welterweight champion Yordenis Ugas will still be a worthy opponent against living legend Manny Pacquiao on Saturday night.
While this fight is not as big as the original bout against Spence, Ugas (26-4-0, 13 KOs) has what it takes to give the Filipino megastar a run for his money. Ugas enters as a +270 boxing betting underdog while Pacquiao (62-7-2, 39 KOs) is -370. Odds-wise, this won’t be the biggest upset but, story-wise, it will be up there.
- Date: Saturday, 9 p.m. ET
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
- Watch on: Pay-per-view
Pacquiao vs Ugas: The Breakdown
Weight Class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Rounds: 12
Money line: Pacquiao -370, Ugas +270
Totals: Over 10½ (-240), Under 10½ (+200u)
Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) and most boxing fans are hoping Pacquiao wins so his fight with Spence can be re-booked. But a win from Ugas would shake up the division and potentially create a new star.
As the boxing odds indicate however, Pacquiao should win though this is not a walk in the park.
Pacquiao: No Opponent Too Small
What makes Pacquiao so formidable even in his advanced age is his humility. The eight-division world champion does not underestimate any opponent regardless of their status or record. He will look at Ugas the same way he looked at Spence and train diligently.
Boxing-wise, most fans need no introduction to the great. He is quick, powerful and throws a jaw-dropping amount of combinations from many angles. Pacquiao is not just technical but he is also an unorthodox southpaw. This combination makes it very difficult for opponents to find sparring partners to emulate him.
Pacquiao is coming off a two-year layoff, which would be the longest of his career. He may start slow and be a bit rusty. But, he has had plenty of time to recover. Once he gets his feet wet, he should be able to control the pace, as he usually does.
Ugas: As Tough As They Come
Props to Pacquiao for not only choosing to box Ugas but also doing so on short notice. Not many boxers, even ones ranked as highly as Pacquiao, would risk fighting someone like Ugas. He is incredibly durable and was robbed off a win against Shawn Porter when his knockdown was not scored.
The 35-year-old is a bronze medalist from the 2008 Summer Olympics and, other than the Porter fight, has beaten all his opponents since 2016. Ugas is tough and powerful and will be considerably bigger than Pacquiao.
Don’t be fooled by his lack of knockouts, either. He is disciplined and technical, but if he chooses to brawl he can put out any boxer. Pacquiao has had difficulties going against high-level counter-boxers and Ugas could continue this trend.
Fight Pick: Action Sells
Most Pacquiao fights tend to be exciting. However, like the John Riel Casimero-Guillermo Rigondeaux fight last week, expect this to be more of a chess match than a frenetic back-and-forth. Pacquiao may start this bout slower than usual and the “feeling out” process may be extended.
Even when Pacquiao revs up and starts to throw volume punches, Ugas is sound defensively and will not allow Pacquiao to tee off on him. He will absorb or block most of Pacquiao’s best shots and hit him back strongly enough to gain his respect.
The betting lines are too steep for Pacquiao at -370 considering there is a high probability that this fight becomes a split decision. Instead, grab Pacquiao to win by decision (or technical decision) at +110 as he edges Ugas based on his aggression and volume.
Pick: Pacquiao To Win By Decision or Tec. Decision (+110)
Bonus Pick: All the Way
Whether it will be Ugas or Pacquiao, one thing is almost certain: This fight will go all 12 rounds. Pacquiao still has the power to stop boxers, but Ugas has been very durable and has never been finished. On the flip side, Ugas is also not the type to hunt for knockouts and will be content to outpoint Pacquiao.