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Matias vs Ergashev Deep Dive: Boxing Odds and Betting Preview

IBF Junior Welterweight Title

Before David Benavidez, Demetrius Andrade, Jermall Charlo, and Jose Benavidez Jr. top the card for Showtime boxing’s final PPV broadcast this coming weekend, Subriel Matias, the IBF 140-pound champion, faces Shohjahon Ergashev, an unblemished mandatory challenger, in one of four championship bouts of the event.

There’s no time to waste as the boxing bets odds have been released for Matias vs. Ergashev, and with just 24 hours before fight time, let’s dive straight into our comprehensive guide for the eagerly anticipated bout.

Matias vs Ergashev Deep Dive: Boxing Odds and Betting Preview
Matias vs Ergashev Deep Dive: Boxing Odds and Betting Preview

Matias vs Ergashev: Fighter Previews

Subriel “Browny” Matias

Matias, who is ranked fourth by The Ring at junior welterweight, has been required to exercise patience and tact ever since February when he defeated Jeremias Ponce to earn the vacant title.

Recalling earlier this year, he demonstrated remarkable mental fortitude by withstanding an early assault from Ponce, who was previously unblemished and ultimately defeated him.

Matias obtained the vacated IBF 140-pound championship with the victory, which garnered him the admiration of his fellow Puerto Rican champions.

The 31-year-old, who has made his previous four opponents retire during their bouts, knows that Ergashev will be a formidable opponent, but he is prepared for the challenge.

Moneyline Odds ( -370)

Shohjahon “Descendant of Tamerlane” Ergashev

Before relocating to the United States, Ergashev, ranked ninth by The Ring at junior welterweight, won his first nine bouts in Russia. Subsequently, the southpaw, who is 31 years old, has demonstrated glimpses of his prowess by capturing the unbeaten records of Sonny Fredrickson (by TKO 3) and Mykal Fox (by UD 10).

Ergashev has never confronted an elite fighter, but boxing betting fans expect him to present Matias with the most difficult challenge of his career. The Uzbek is a dangerous southpaw puncher who will attempt to counter Matias’s volume of strikes, and it’s nice to finally see him go up against a worthy level of competition.

His team has been unsuccessful in luring major names to face him, and he ultimately had to earn the mandatory position by force. Everyone has ducked the man with an unbeaten record and 20 knockout victories, but Saturday’s showdown will allow him to prove his worth.

Moneyline Odds (+270)

Matias vs Ergashev: The Tale of the Tape

Subriel Matias Shohjahon Ergashev
Country Puerto Rico Uzbekistan
Age 31 31
Pro Record 19-1-0 23-0-0
KOs 19 20
Height 5’8” 5’10”
Reach 71.0” 71.0”
Win/Loss (Last 5) W/W/W/W/L W/W/W/W/W
Championship Titles IBF Junior Welterweight WBC
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Inactivity 273 days 472 days
Pro 7 years 7 years

 

Matias vs Ergashev: Main Event Breakdown & Analysis

Matias Fight Style & How Can Matias Defeat Ergashev

Ergashev has never fought twelve rounds, and of his 20 knockouts to date, none of them have been achieved in the second half of said fights. Therefore, the plan for Matias should be simple: take the Uzbek natives into deep waters and display a strong second-half showing as he’s done in recent history.

Matias’ win over the southpaw Kazakhstani Jukembayev is a great example of how he can find success in this bout. While Jukembayev isn’t as good as Ergashev, they stem from a similar school of boxing (Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan), something with which Matias has experience.

He’s more prepared and conditioned for championship bouts, and if he can avoid an early onslaught, I do not doubt Matias can solve the southpaw complications. He gets stronger as fights continue, and he easily finds a stoppage in the later rounds versus a guy in Ergashev who struggles with fighting behind the jab.

Ergashev Fight Style & How Can Ergashev Defeat Matias

Ergashev loads up on his left hand, and in the first six rounds, he’ll likely be the more technical of the two behind excellent footwork. With knockout potential and key movement in switching stances, he can control the range and find a finish.

Ergashev must close the victory in the initial six rounds because he has displayed consistent red flags beyond the sixth. There is also a lack of evidence around his potential at said stage of the fight.

We know Matias is stronger in the second half of fights, and he’s already proven versus southpaws; however, the Uzbek has the potential to blow him away in the first six, and should he establish control as he’s done on so many occasions, it’ll be an early night for the Puerto Rican.

The Best Betting Pick: Ergashev Moneyline (+270)

While the Las Vegas boxing odds suggest this bout has a clear winner, I’m struggling to side with Matias, the favorite, based on his pricing. Does he have the skills? You damn right, but the first half of this fight will position him in a world of danger, and a -370 price tag doesn’t compute.

Ergashev is technical, has a lot of power, and has excellent footwork. These attributes have only been proven in the early stages of his past bouts, while his opponent is the exact opposite, a man who comes on strong in the latter rounds.

The jab of Ergashev is a worry, but I believe his footwork has enough diversity to control the fight and present enough openings for the finish. It’s a ballsy play, and usually, I’d side with the over/under with such a difficult fight to predict. Still, as previously mentioned, we have one fighter who will likely finish the fight late and another who holds the potential to end the fight early.

Matias is the rightful favorite, but the line is too wide, and the unknown entity of Ergashev at this level could well be revealed as a new star this weekend, thus making him our best boxing pick.

Matias vs Ergashev Event Information

  • Date & Time: Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023 – 08:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas
  • Promotion: TGB Promotions
  • Scheduled Bouts: 13
  • Matias vs Ergashev Live Stream: Box Live
  • Main Event Bout: Benavidez vs. Andrade
  • Moneyline Probability: Matias – 78.7% (-370) Ergashev – 27% (+270)

 

Matias vs Ergashev BetUS Sportsbook Lines

 

IBF Junior Welterweight Title Main Event: The Crystal Ball

In this orthodox v Southpaw matchup, a quick rub of my crystal ball reveals that boxing today will see Ergashev finish the fight in round five after overwhelming Matias with slick footwork and power shots.

 

Potential Bets from an Ergashev Round 5 KO/TKO:

 

 

Questions Of The Day

Can Ergashev overcome his lack of big-fight experience?


Ergashev’s lack of big-fight experience isn’t his own doing; many boxers have avoided fighting him. So, yes, after forcing himself into the spotlight by earning a mandatory position, Ergashev could prove to be as good as his 20-0-0 record suggests.

What is Matias’s KO percentage vs Ergashev’s KO percentage?


With 20 of his 23 wins coming by knockout, Ergashev owns an 87% KO rate. The defending champion, Matias, has finished all 19 of his opponents via KO/TKO, giving him a 100% KO rate.

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