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Paul vs Diaz Prediction, Fight Preview, Live Stream, Odds and Picks

Problem Child Aims at Another Fading MMA Legend

It’s getting old watching Jake Paul beat up UFC fighters past their prime. But he’s fighting Nate Diaz this Saturday, and the boxing lines have him as a moderate favorite. Paul has not lost to any ex-MMA fighter he’s fought. But he’s also not boxed a guy like Diaz. But despite his bad boy persona and granite chin, the Stockton native is just another scalp for the Paul brother.

Diaz Nothing More Than Fan Favorite

Diaz continues to be a popular figure among fight fans. That’s why the sportsbook has given him a somewhat short line for a fighter over his head here. But at 38 with thousands of mileage on his body, Diaz is just one notch above a sacrificial lamb for Jake Paul.

Paul vs Diaz Prediction, Fight Preview, Live Stream, Odds and Picks
Paul vs Diaz Prediction, Fight Preview, Live Stream, Odds and Picks

Had this taken place five years earlier, he’d have put up a better fight. But as it stands, Diaz will get lit up by Paul, who is much bigger and more experienced as a boxer. Diaz is famous for his unbreakable chin. He’s never been knocked out in his 18-year MMA career. His only two TKO losses were due to a cut and a corner stoppage.

But that proves he’s still human. Diaz may just eat one too many punches here and get saved by the referee. On the chance he doesn’t, can Diaz rally against Paul if the bruiser starts to tire? The best fans can hope for is for him to give Paul a bit of a scare. But that’s not worth making him a boxing pick.

Paul Could Look Impressive

People are tired of watching Paul box MMA fighters. This is a shame as the ever-improving boxer could look spectacular against Diaz. Don’t buy into the talk that Paul will struggle against Diaz. The former UFC title challenger’s best days are behind him, and he’s more of a figure now. Paul is 12 years younger, more active, and more powerful.


On top of that, Paul is a natural cruiserweight with his build. Diaz is more of a blown-up light heavyweight or super middleweight. Even if Paul can’t finish Diaz, he’ll be the more active boxer here. Diaz tends to use a lot of time to taunt his opponents. He’s strictly a counter-puncher and does poorly when his foes don’t take the bait.

Of course, Paul could fall into that trap and get tagged as he tries too aggressively to finish Diaz. It’s how Conor McGregor lost to Diaz. But that was also over six years ago against a smaller man. Paul will be a different beast and the loss to Tommy Fury will only make the “Problem Child” work harder.

Paul vs Diaz Head-to-Head

Paul and Diaz have agreed to fight at a catch weight of 185 pounds. That is the heaviest Diaz will weigh in as he typically fights at 170 pounds. Both boxers have a 76-inch reach and are right-handed.

Paul vs Diaz Fight Information

  • Fighters: Paul (6-1-0, 4 KOs) vs Diaz (0-0-0)
  • Location: American Airlines Arena, Dallas, TX
  • Day/Time: Saturday, August 5, 8 p.m. ET
  • Paul vs Diaz Live Stream: Box Live

Paul vs Diaz Betting Lines

Paul vs Diaz Picks and Prediction

Paul should beat Diaz in this match-up. There is intrigue on Diaz at 3-1. But he’s not that guy anymore. He’s old, slow, and gets hit too often. Even if Paul can’t finish Diaz, he will be busier and score more points. Diaz will have his moments. But it will be few and far between, as is typical with his bouts.

While most fans would love to see Diaz make boxing news with a win, the right bet here is for Paul. If -400 is too juicy for this fight, put it in a parlay.

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