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2024 March Madness Betting Stats & Trends

Welcome to March Madness. As you prepare to bet on NCAA tournament games, futures, props, and in-play action remember to make sure your BetUS account is current. If you don’t have a BetUS account, click here to sign up now. Now let’s move on to why you are here. We have compiled the most comprehensive list of March Madness betting stats, trends, and facts to ensure every bet you make and every bracket you fill out is well-informed.

The UConn Huskies, armed with the top seed in the East region, seek to defend their championship crown. In the Midwest region, the Purdue Boilermakers and player of the year Zach Edey are determined to bury last year’s embarrassment and follow in the footsteps of the 2019 Virginia squad, who claimed the national championship a year after suffering a shocking defeat to a 16 seed.

Can NC State defy the March Madness betting stats and trends to win the NCAA Tournament?
NC State is the 11-seed out of the South region in the Men’s National Tournament. Image from x/@CBKReport

Legendary March Madness programs like Gonzaga, North Carolina, and Duke are poised to make another Final Four run, while underdogs such as Saint Peter’s, UAB, and Long Beach State lie in wait, ready to shock the nation. Fasten your seatbelts, as the madness is just beginning.

 

This college basketball season has been exhilarating, with top-10 teams falling to unranked opponents at an unprecedented rate. Brace yourselves, as the upsets show no signs of stopping now that the Big Dance has arrived.

 

The First Four has proven to be a treacherous battleground, where underdogs rise to the occasion and defy the odds. In 11 out of the 12 tournaments since its inception, at least one of its participants has advanced to the second round, leaving their mark on the tournament’s history. Remarkably, two First Four teams, UCLA in 2021 and VCU in 2011, have even etched their names among the Final Four contenders, defying all expectations.

Moreover, three other First Four participants have reached the Sweet 16, showcasing their resilience and determination. The 2023 tournament witnessed an unprecedented feat, as two First Four participants, the 11-seed Pittsburgh, and the 16-seed FDU, punched their tickets to the second round, marking the first time such an achievement has been realized.

These triumphs serve as a testament to the unpredictable nature of the First Four, where dreams are ignited, and the stage is set for the ultimate display of grit and determination.

 

The first two rounds of March Madness are where the craziness takes center stage. Not only has a No. 15 seed won a first-round game in three consecutive years for the first time, but all three of them – Princeton (2023), Saint Peter’s (2022), and Oral Roberts (2021) – went on to reach the Sweet 16! Can you believe it?

But wait, there’s more! Saint Peter’s took it a step further by advancing to the Elite Eight. I mean, who would have thought a No. 15 seed could make it that far? It’s mind-boggling, especially considering that No. 15 seeds have a dismal record of 11-141 in first-round games. However, nine of those 11 winners finished in the top two in their conference standings. Impressive, right?

This year, South Dakota State (first in the Summit League) is the only 15-seed that finished in the top two in its conference, so they might just have a shot at pulling off another historic upset.

Speaking of upsets, let’s talk about the matchups between No. 4 and No. 13 seeds. In the past five tourneys, 14 out of the 20 matchups between these seeds were decided by single digits, the most of any first-round seed pairing. Surprisingly, only seven of the 20 matchups between 8- and 9-seeds were single-digit games. Who would have thought?

But wait, there’s more! No. 13 seeds have won at least one game in 27 of 38 tournaments, proving that they’re no pushovers.

Now, let’s talk about the top dogs. At least one top-4 seed has lost in the first round in 14 of the past 15 tournaments. Last year, there were three top-4 seeds ousted in their first game: No. 1 Purdue (by FDU), No. 2 Arizona (by Princeton), and No. 4 Virginia (by Furman). Talk about shocking!

And let’s not forget about the No. 12 seeds. At least one No. 12 seed has defeated a No. 5 seed in 32 of 38 tournaments, but this once “sure thing” is trending downward. 12-seeds failed to win a game just three times in the first 30 years of the modern era, but have come up empty in three of the past eight tournaments (2015, 2018, 2023). It’s like they’re losing their mojo or something.

Finally, let’s talk about the second-round trend. No. 3 seeds are suddenly feasting on No. 6 seeds. Since 2008, No. 3 seeds are 22-5 against 6-seeds. From 1985 to 2007, No. 3s were 26-25 against No. 6s. What a turnaround!

So, there you have it, folks. The madness is real, and it’s only getting crazier. Buckle up and enjoy the ride because who knows what other mind-blowing upsets are in store for us this year?

 

Alright, let’s dive into mind-blowing Sweet Sixteen betting stats and trends that prove the madness is real!

First off, let’s talk about the double-digit seeds. These underdogs have been making a habit of crashing the Sweet 16 party. In fact, a double-digit seed has advanced to the Sweet 16 in 15 straight tournaments and 36 out of 38 overall. Can you believe that? Last year, it was the 15th-seeded Princeton Tigers who were the sole double-digit seed to reach the second weekend. But in 2021 and 2022, we witnessed an incredible four teams seeded 10th or worse making it to the Sweet 16. Talk about chaos!

Now, let’s break down the Sweet 16 appearances by double-digit seeds since 2011:

  • No. 11 seeds: 14 appearances
  • No. 10 seeds: 5 appearances
  • No. 15 seeds: 4 appearances
  • No. 12 seeds: 4 appearances
  • No. 13 seeds: 2 appearances
  • No. 14 seeds: 0 appearances (poor fellas)
  • No. 16 seeds: 0 appearances (they’re still waiting for their Cinderella moment)

 

It’s worth noting that No. 11 seeds have been playing the Cinderella role exceptionally well recently. At least one 11-seed has made the Sweet 16 in seven of the past nine tournaments. We’ve even seen multiple 11-seeds make it to the second weekend in five of the past 12 tourneys. But last year, they were nowhere to be found in the Sweet 16. The last time we had consecutive Sweet 16s without an 11-seed present was a whopping 15 years ago.

Here’s a mind-boggling stat for you: In the 68-team era (since 2011), there have been just as many No. 15 seeds to reach the Sweet 16 as No. 12 seeds (four). Who would have thought those 15-seeds would be hanging with the 12-seeds?

And finally, let’s talk about the No. 2 seeds. All four of them have reached the Sweet 16 just twice in the past 26 tournaments. You’d think these highly-seeded teams would have a better track record, but the madness knows no bounds!

 

 

Alright, let’s keep this madness train going with some jaw-dropping Elite Eight betting trends and stats!

Here’s something that’ll really blow your mind: At least two teams seeded No. 6 or worse have reached the Elite Eight in each of the past three tournaments (and six of the past seven). Can you believe that? These lower-seeded underdogs have been crashing the party and making a mockery of the so-called “favorites.

Just last year, we witnessed an unprecedented event: the Elite Eight did not have a single No. 1 seed present. I mean, who would have thought that the top dogs would all be sent home before the Elite Eight? It’s absolutely mind-boggling!

Speaking of No. 1 seeds, get this: All four No. 1 seeds have reached the Elite Eight just once in the past 13 tournaments (2016). That’s right, folks, it’s been a whopping seven years since we’ve seen all four No. 1 seeds make it to the Elite Eight. Talk about a rarity!

It’s like the madness has taken over, and the lower-seeded teams are reveling in it. They’re not intimidated by the so-called “powerhouses” anymore. They’re coming in with a chip on their shoulder, ready to take down anyone and everyone in their path.

So, what does all this mean? Well, it means that you better buckle up and prepare for even more madness this year. The upsets are becoming the norm, and the favorites are no longer safe. Anything can happen in this tournament, and that’s what makes it so darn exciting!

Just when you think you’ve got it all figured out, a team like FDU or Saint Peter’s comes along and turns the whole thing on its head. It’s a beautiful chaos, and it’s a reminder that anything is possible in the world of college basketball.

 

 

Buckle up, folks, because we’re about to dive into some mind-bending Final Four betting stats and trends that will really put the “madness” in your March.

Let’s start with a doozy: last year’s Final Four was a historic one, as it marked the first time in 10 years that there wasn’t a single No. 1 seed present. That’s right, the top dogs were all sent packing before the final weekend. Now, that’s what I call madness!

But wait, it gets even crazier. In 30 of the 38 tournaments (that’s a whopping 79%), either one or two No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four. And get this: only once have all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four, and that was way back in 2008. Talk about a rare occurrence!

Now, let’s shift our focus to the lower seeds. At least one team seeded seventh or worse has reached the Final Four in nine of the past 10 tournaments. By comparison, in the first 32 years of seeding (1979-2010), this happened only eight times total. Can you believe that? It’s like the underdogs have been given a secret superpower or something!

And the madness doesn’t stop there. Each of the past 13 tournaments has had at least one team seeded No. 4 or worse reach the Final Four. It’s like the brackets are being shredded to pieces, and the lower seeds are having a field day!

But here’s a stat that’ll really blow your mind: it’s been a whopping 32 years since a No. 6 seed made the Final Four, by far the longest drought among seeds that have a Final Four appearance. In all, only three 6-seeds have reached the Final Four: Michigan (1992), Kansas (1988), and Providence (1987). Talk about a rare breed!

And if you’re an Iowa State fan, you might want to brace yourself for this one. Of the 36 teams that were seeded in the top two and in the AP top 10 after entering the season unranked, none have reached the Final Four. Ouch!

Both teams that fit these criteria last season lost during the first weekend (No. 1 Purdue lost to FDU in the first round, and No. 2 Marquette lost to Michigan State in the second round). Double ouch!

And here’s the kicker: Iowa State received no votes in the preseason poll but earned a No. 2 seed and is currently ranked seventh. Early-exit alert: 15 of the 23 No. 2 seeds to meet these criteria lost in the first or second round. Yikes!

So, there you have it, folks. The madness is real, and these stats prove that anything can happen in the NCAA Tournament. The favorites are no longer safe, and the underdogs are hungry for an upset. Buckle up and enjoy the ride because who knows what other mind-blowing moments are in store for us this year?

 

Now let’s dive into some mind-boggling National Championship betting stats and trends that will have you questioning everything you thought you knew about March Madness!

Let’s start with a shocking revelation: there has not been a repeat champion since Florida in 2007. Can you believe it? Since then, no defending champ has advanced past the Sweet 16. Ouch! Only four of the 15 defending champs since then have even reached the Sweet 16, and a whopping four others missed the tournament altogether. Talk about a curse!

But wait, it gets even crazier. Defending champs have lost in the first or second round in each of the past six tournaments, and three of them were No. 1 seeds: Kansas (2023), Baylor (2022), and Villanova (2017). It’s like they can’t handle the pressure or something!

And in a twist of fate, this is the third straight year the defending champion (UConn) is a No. 1 seed. Will they break the curse or suffer the same fate as their predecessors?

Now, let’s talk about conference tournaments. No team has ever won a national championship after losing its first game in the conference tournament. That’s right, folks, you can kiss your title dreams goodbye if you stumble out of the gate in your conference tourney. Tennessee (No. 2), Creighton (3), Kentucky (3), Duke (4), Kansas (4), and Alabama (4) are the highest-seeded teams to lose their conference tourney opener this year. Yikes!

But here’s a stat that’ll really blow your mind: since 2002, when KenPom began tracking it, 20 of 21 national champions have finished in the top 25 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The only exception? UConn in 2014 (39th on offense, 10th on defense). Talk about an anomaly!

This year, UConn, Purdue, Arizona, Auburn, Houston, Creighton, Marquette, and North Carolina currently meet these criteria entering the tourney. Duke and Tennessee are very close to qualifying as well, so they could easily do so by the end of the tournament.

Now, let’s talk about seeds. Twelve of the past 16 champions were 1-seeds. But get this: it has been 11 years since the last time the overall No. 1 seed won the title (Louisville in 2013). Unbelievable!

And here’s the kicker: eight of the 19 previous overall No. 1s lost in the Sweet 16 or earlier, including each of the past two years (Alabama in 2023, Gonzaga in 2022). They have been more likely to lose during the first weekend (four) than to be champions (three). Talk about a curse!

This year’s overall No. 1 seed? You guessed it, the defending champion UConn. Can they break the curse or will they fall victim to it once again?

But wait, there’s more! A No. 2 seed has reached the championship game just once in the past 10 tournaments. That’s right, Villanova won in 2016 as a 2-seed. The current six-tournament drought without a title game appearance is the longest ever. And get this: there has never been a matchup of No. 2 seeds in the championship game. Crazy, right?

And if you’re a fan of a No. 5 seed, brace yourself: a No. 5 seed has never won a championship, the only seed in the top 8 that hasn’t done so. Last year, a pair of 5-seeds made the Final Four in the same tourney for the first time. San Diego State became just the fourth No. 5 seed to reach the title game, joining Butler (2010), Indiana (2002), and Florida (2000). This year’s No. 5s are: San Diego State, Saint Mary’s, Wisconsin, and Gonzaga. Could one of them finally break the curse?

And here’s a mind-blowing stat for you: it’s been 34 years since a champion came from a conference that received fewer than four bids. UNLV in 1990 (three-bid Big West Conference) and Louisville in 1986 (three-bid Metro Conference) are the only schools to do so in the modern tournament era. This year, UConn, Marquette, and Creighton – all top-3 seeds and the only Big East representatives — are the highest-seeded teams looking to end this streak. Both WCC reps, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, are No. 5 seeds.

So, there you have it, folks. The madness is real, and these stats prove that anything can happen in the NCAA Tournament. From curses to droughts to anomalies, this tournament has it all. Buckle up and enjoy the ride because who knows what other mind-blowing moments are in store for us this year?

As we wrap up our deep dive into the thrilling world of the 2024 Men’s Basketball Tournament March Madness betting stats and trends, one thing is crystal clear – this year’s tournament will be nothing short of a rollercoaster ride of excitement, surprises, and jaw-dropping moments!

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