Alabama vs San Diego State Prediction, Game Preview, Live Stream, Odds and Picks
Aztecs, No. 1 Seed Crimson Tide to Meet for First Time
Alabama Eyeing First Elite Eight Appearance Since 2014
Alabama is the only one of the top four seeds that advanced in the South Region.
Fifth-seeded San Diego State was viewed as a team primed for an upset against a dangerous Charleston team in the first round and then topped Furman to reach the Sweet 16 after Virginia fell in the first round.
Alabama and San Diego State rank third and fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency according to the Pomeroy college basketball ratings database. The Crimson Tide rank ninth in offensive efficiency with the Aztecs coming in 70th.
When looking at the college basketball news, there isn’t much to report when it comes to injuries for both teams.
San Diego State’s top nine players have combined to miss just five games this season. Alabama’s top scorer, Brandon Miller, is dealing with a groin issue, but expect him to be good to go on Friday.
Alabama is first in the Associated Press poll with the Crimson Tide earning 48 of the 61 first-place votes. Alabama is second in the coaches’ poll. San Diego State is 18th in both national polls.
According to the odds to win March Madness, Alabama (+375) has the best odds to win the national championship. San Diego State is 13th at +4000.
Flexing Their Muscles
Even though San Diego State was the best team in one of the top mid-major conferences in the country, expectations were pretty low heading into the NCAA Tournament.
The Aztecs had something to do with that, falling to Boise State in the Mountain West championship game.
San Diego State picked up the intensity once March Madness arrived as Charleston and Furman shot 32% from the field and 22% on 3-pointers.
AG said NOT TODAY 🙅♂️ https://t.co/Alt4Inapqv
— San Diego State Men’s Basketball (@Aztec_MBB) March 18, 2023
The level of competition will be increasing as San Diego State squares off with the overall No. 1 seed in the tournament and a team that opened the tournament by making 15 3-pointers.
San Diego State is 5-1 against the college basketball betting lines in its last six games.
Freshman Star Struggling
There were already plenty of eyes on Alabama freshman Miller since he delivered the gun that police say was used in the murder of Jamea Jonae Harris near the school’s campus. Former teammate Darius Miles is one of two people indicted by a grand jury on capital murder charges.
Since the NCAA Tournament started, the focus has been more on Miller’s game.
Miller was 5 of 17 in the Maryland win after missing all five of his shots and being held scoreless against Texas A&M Corpus Christi in the first round.
He will need to find his offense if Alabama is to continue to advance in the tournament. It won’t be easy against one of the nation’s top defensive teams and an opponent that prefers to control the tempo.
Alabama has covered against the college basketball odds in four of its last five games.
Alabama vs San Diego State Game Injuries
Alabama vs San Diego State Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting between Alabama and San Diego State.
The Aztecs are 3-9 against SEC teams with the wins coming against Missouri in 1978, Florida in 1985 and Georgia in 2017.
San Diego State lost to the No. 1 seed in 2015, falling to Duke 68-49 as a nine-point underdog, and in 2014, losing to Arizona 70-64 as a 7½-point underdog.
Alabama vs San Diego State Game Information
- Game: Alabama (31-5) vs San Diego State (29-6)
- Location: KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY
- Day/Time: Friday, March 24, 6:30 p.m. ET
- San Diego State vs Alabama Live Stream: TBS.com
Alabama vs San Diego State Betting Lines
Alabama vs San Diego State Picks and Prediction
This could be one rather physical game. There were 90 free throws attempted in Alabama’s first two games, and the Crimson Tide will look to make more trips to the line against San Diego State.
With the Aztecs 10 of 36 from 3-point range in the first two tournament games, more trips to the foul line might not be a bad idea.
There is no history between these programs and that could make for a challenging game to figure out when it comes time to make college basketball predictions. Don’t be surprised to see Alabama figure out a way to survive and advance. However, the 7½-point line seems a little high.
Keep in mind that in San Diego State’s only game against a team from the SEC this season, the Aztecs took Arkansas to overtime.
Among the eight regional semifinals, only the Tennessee-Florida Atlantic game has a lower total than the 137-point mark in this matchup. Each of San Diego State’s last 10 games went under the total so keep that in mind.
Alabama is 20-15-1 against the spread, the second-best mark in the SEC. San Diego State is just 17-16-3 against the NCAA basketball odds.
Alabama is 29-3 when listed by the sportsbook as the favorite. San Diego State is 1-2 when listed as the underdog. The teams are a combined 13-5 in neutral-site games this season.
Alabama is listed at -350 in our Vegas March Madness lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Alabama, you have a chance to win $29. The San Diego State is +280, offering a chance to win $280 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Alabama a 77.78% chance to win, with San Diego State at 26.32%.
