Consider More Than Scoring Props for the Stars in the Iowa-UConn Semifinal
There haven’t been many national semifinals with a more anticipated 1-on-1 showdown than the one between Iowa’s Caitlin Clark and UConn’s Paige Bueckers. Clark’s Iowa team is favored in the women’s college basketball betting lines to top Bueckers and UConn and advance to Sunday’s national title game.
This is Iowa’s second straight trip to the Final Four as the Hawkeyes stunned South Carolina in the 2023 semifinals before losing to LSU in the title game. UConn, an 11-time national champion, is looking to return to the final for the second time in the last three years.
The teams last met in the 2021 NCAA tournament with UConn winning 92-72. The Huskies are 3-0 in the NCAA tournament against Iowa, but the other two games were played on UConn’s home court.
When looking at NCAAW futures odds, Iowa is second at +300 with UConn third at +700 in the odds of winning the national title.
The game is set to start about 30 minutes after Friday’s first national semifinal between North Carolina State and South Carolina. That could result in a 9:45 p.m. ET tip at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland. The game will be televised on ESPN.
1. Iowa’s Caitlin Clark to have 7+ Rebounds (-130)
UConn is not going to stop the all-time leading scorer in NCAA Division I basketball history even if the Huskies’ Nika Muhl is a former Big East Defensive Player of the Year.
However, some of the numbers that Clark has to hit to reward those who bet online are incredibly high including +114 odds for her to have at least 36 points, +112 odds to have 11 assists, and +117 odds to connect on at least seven 3-pointers according to the college basketball betting lines. The rebound props might be the ones to look at.
Paige Bueckers on Caitlin Clark: “She’s just a competitor. She wants to win. She has just intangibles of the game. She knows how to play, a great IQ. I think the biggest thing about her is she competes and she’s just a winner, she wants to win at all costs. So I know going into… pic.twitter.com/sQZLwPLcs7
— Tyler Tachman (@Tyler_T15) April 4, 2024
Clark is averaging 7.3 rebounds in the first four games in the NCAA tournament and the -130 odds for her to pull down seven rebounds could be the way to go.
2. UConn’s Paige Bueckers to have 5+ Assists (-150)
The scoring props seem a bit risky, even for somebody as gifted as Bueckers with -126 odds for Bueckers to have at least 27 points and +108 odds for her to get to 29.
Knowing that more than one player will need to deliver for UConn to make its way to yet another national title game, Bueckers will likely be looking to get some of her teammates going early in this game. Freshmen KK Arnold and Ashlynn Shade could be recipients of passes from Bueckers after they combined for just nine points against USC in the Elite Eight.
The assist props for Bueckers are among the NCAAW player props today that could attract plenty of action.
3. UConn’s Aaliyah Edwards to have 19+ Points (-114)
There are more than two star players in this game.
Aaliyah Edwards joins the likes of Maya Moore, Brenna Stewart, Tina Charles and Rebecca Lobo as the only UConn players with at least 1,800 points and 1,000 rebounds in her career.
She is coming off a 24-point game in the win over Southern California. Edwards could have a huge night against an Iowa team that has struggled at times against top post players, so consider both the scoring and rebounding props for the senior post player.
4. Iowa’s Kate Martin to have 3+ 3-pointers (+224)
Experience matters at this time of the season and a fifth-year senior like Martin could be a key figure as Iowa looks to return to the national title game.
In last year’s championship-game loss, Martin was 3 for 4 from 3-point range and had 13 points against LSU.
Martin had 21 points in the rematch against LSU, the most since a Nov. 19 win over Drake.
The odds are pretty enticing for Martin at +110 for her to have at least two 3-pointers and +224 for Martin to connect on three 3-pointers.
5. UConn’s Bueckers and Iowa’s Clark To Combine for 60+ Points (-200)
Bueckers and Clark are players who can pile up points in a hurry.
Clark is coming off a 41-point effort against LSU thanks to nine 3-pointers and she is averaging 32.3 points in the four NCAA tournament games.
Bueckers is putting up 28 points per game in the tournament while shooting 51% from the field. If the two All-Americans match their tournament averages, that would put them right at 60 points.
Bueckers has eight 20-point games in the NCAA tournament in her three seasons while Clark has 10 straight 20-point games in March Madness games, so they could put on a show on Friday night.
Questions Of The Day
Which players delivered on prop bets in the regional finals?
Kate Martin had 21 points and Sydney Affolter added 16 points in Iowa’s win over LSU in the Albany 2 Regional final. For UConn, Aaliyah Edwards finished with 24 points and Nika Muhl had eight assists as the third-seeded Huskies topped No. 1 seed Southern California in the Portland 3 Regional final.
What are the game odds for the semifinal matchup between UConn and Iowa?
Iowa is listed by our sportsbook as the 2½-point favorite with -145 odds to win the game outright. The moneyline is at +105 for UConn with the total set at 162½ points.
