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Go with Favored UConn as ATS Pick in Low-Scoring Title Game
Since the NCAA tournament expanded from 48 to 64 teams in 1985 and then later went to 68 teams, this is the ninth time that a pair of No. 1 seeds meet in the championship game. The March Madness odds have UConn listed as the favorite against Purdue.
This is the second March Madness matchup between the Boilermakers and the Huskies with UConn winning 72-60 in 2009 as a 7-point favorite. Purdue had won the first four games in the series with three of the meetings coming from 1986-1992.
UConn is a 6½-point favorite against Purdue according to the college basketball betting line.
When looking at college basketball futures odds, UConn was first at -200 and Purdue was second at +200 in the odds to win March Madness when the Final Four began.
Game Information
- Game: Purdue (34-4) vs UConn (36-3)
- Date/Time: Monday, April 8, 9:20 p.m. ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
- Purdue vs UConn Live Stream: TBS.com
Purdue has won 27 of its last 31 neutral-site games and is 19-11-1 against the spread in those games. UConn has won 25 of its last 29 neutral-site games and has covered against the spread in 23 of those matchups.
UConn has a chance to break the record for the largest point differential in the NCAA tournament. Keep that in mind when looking at the best college basketball bets today.
Largest scoring margin entering National Champ Game…
+ 1999 Duke: +126
+ 2024 UConn: +125
+ 2016 Villanova: +121
+ 1996 Kentucky: +120Purdue is at +98. This is the 1st title game since 1960 where both teams are outscoring their opp. by 19+ PPG in NCAAT entering. pic.twitter.com/6VlYeeGXPa
— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) April 7, 2024
UConn is priced at -280 to win the game outright while the Boilermaker is +230 in our sportsbook odds.
The Boilermakers and the Huskies meet on Monday, April 8, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ. You can watch the game on TBS at 9:20 p.m. ET.
Purdue vs UConn Odds and Spreads
Betting Trends
- UConn is 36-2 as a favorite this season.
- Purdue won its two previous games as the underdog.
- Just three of UConn’s 12 neutral-site games went over the total.
- The total went under in each of UConn’s last six games.
- UConn and Purdue are a combined 20-3-1 against the Las Vegas odds in neutral-site games.
- Purdue is 5-0 against the spread in its last five games.
- The total has gone under in four of Purdue’s last five games.
- The Huskies have covered in their last six games.
ATS Prediction: UConn -6½ (-110)
This is the game college basketball fans have been waiting for all season. Either Purdue or UConn has been ranked first in the Associated Press poll in 11 of the last 16 polls including a five-week stretch when the Huskies and Boilermakers were first and second in the AP poll.
The Huskies have covered in their last six games.
UConn can become the first team to win back-to-back national titles since Florida in 2006 and 2007. The Huskies can become the first team to win consecutive national titles with all the victories by at least 10 points.
UConn seems to be able to win in any style of game so it is hard to pick against the reigning champions when looking at the best college basketball odds today.
Over/Under Pick: Under 145 1/2 (-110)
Things will look different than in UConn’s semifinal win over Alabama when the teams combined for 84 points in the first half. The Purdue-North Carolina State semifinal didn’t hit or surpass the 84-point mark until 10:52 remained in the second half. Look for a similar pace in this game as Purdue figures to struggle in a high-scoring affair.
Purdue has a pretty good track record in neutral-site games and this feels like a game that could turn into a defensive slugfest. When making March Madness over/under predictions, remember that Purdue bounced back from a tough perimeter shooting game versus Tennessee by making 10 of 25 from 3-point range.
Player Prop Pick: UConn’s Stephon Castle to have 11+ Points (-137)
Don’t look for UConn freshman Stephon Castle to have another 21-point game. However, there are plenty of reasons why Castle is on the radar of NBA teams. On another team, he could probably be averaging 20 points per game as a freshman. In what could be his final college game, look for Castle to hit double digits in scoring again while continuing his strong defensive play.
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Prediction
Questions of the Day
Which team has a better record against the spread in the national championship game matchup between UConn and Purdue?
Purdue is 21-15-2 against the spread this season with UConn 27-12 ATS heading into Monday’s title game.
What is a player prop to consider for Purdue in the national championship game?
Braden Smith is too talented to have another game with three points as was the case in the semifinal victory. Take a look at the -110 odds for Smith to have at least 11 points on Monday. The +149 odds for Smith to have at least two 3-pointers are worth considering as well.
