Miami vs Texas Prediction, Game Preview, Live Stream, Odds & Picks

· Mar 25 - 6 minutes read

Elite Guards Lead Surging Squads

The chaos continued in the Sweet 16 with No. 1 seeds Alabama and Houston falling. One seeds are absent from the Elite Eight, which is the first time in NCAA Tournament history. This has caused a large shift in the odds to win March Madness. Sunday’s battle between No. 5 Miami (28-7) and No. 2 Texas (29-8) could produce the next national champion.

This matchup is the definition of elite with perhaps the best backcourts in college basketball. Both teams are rolling with several double-digit wins in the tournament. The Hurricanes dominated Houston with an 89-75 win on Friday. Miami has covered three consecutive games against the spread (ATS). The Longhorns are 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight games and come off a 12-point win against No. 3 Xavier.

This is college basketball odds’ largest point spread of the Elite Eight with Texas favored by 4½ points. However, this should be a closely contested game as both teams feature small lineups with excellent guard play.

Miami Seeks First Final Four

This is the high point of the Miami program. Once again, a round of applause for coach Jim Larranaga. The Hurricanes have reached new heights and could make history on Sunday. They are seeking their first Final Four in program history. According to NCAA basketball odds, Miami has a great chance at +165 on the moneyline against Texas.

Since narrowly escaping No. 12 Drake in the first round, the Canes have won the last two games by an average margin of 15 points while averaging 87 points. The offense put on a clinic against Houston, which featured a top-five defense. Miami poured in 89 points while shooting 51.7% and 11 of 25 from three (44%). As usual, the backcourt led the way with Nigel Pack posting 26 points and Isaiah Wong totaling 20 points.

Phenomenal display of shot-making from Nigel Pack to bury Houston’s Final Four dreams with 26 points (7/10 3P) on just 12 field goal attempts. Has the green light to shoot from anywhere on the floor in Miami’s unique system and was on fire all game tonight. pic.twitter.com/j8Lv3ndAhM

— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) March 25, 2023

Houston was great preparation for Texas. Miami held strong in the rebounding department against one of the country’s best on the glass. Plus, the Canes showed they can score plenty against an elite defense. Frankly, Miami continues to be disrespected, as college basketball lines have it with the second-highest odds to win the championship (+1100).

Texas Among Title Favorites

The Longhorns have reached their first Elite Eight since 2008. Texas can earn its first Final Four berth since 2003. This would be the program’s second national semifinal since the 64-team field was created in 1985.

After Alabama and Houston fell on Friday night, the Longhorns’ title odds were vaulted to the top. The sportsbook has Texas as the second favorite to cut the nets at +350, behind UConn at +325. Before the tournament, some March Madness expert picks viewed the Longhorns as a sleeper pick. However, no one expected this chaos. With all No. 1 seeds out of the field, the tournament is wide open for Texas.

The backcourt is one of college basketball’s best and has dominated lesser competition through three rounds. Miami will be the best test yet. The Canes are perhaps the only team in the nation with guard play that stack up to the Longhorns. Wong (16.3 points), Jordan Miller (15.1 points) and Pack (13.8 points) will give Texas’ Marcus Carr (15.8 points), Sir’Jabari Rice (12.9 points), and Tyrese Hunter (10.4 points) a run for their money.

After posting 28 points and 10 rebounds in the second round, forward Dylan Disu missed most of the Sweet 16 with a foot injury. Coach Rodney Terry said he is “day-to-day” following Friday’s win. Keep a close eye on the injury front.

Miami vs Texas Game Injuries

Miami vs Texas Head-to-Head

In three all-time meetings, Texas is 2-1 with back-to-back wins. However, Miami covered the spread in the most recent meeting.

Miami vs Texas Game Information

Game: No. 5 Miami (28-7) vs. No. 2 Texas (29-8)
Location: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO
Day/Time: Sunday, March 26, 5:05 p.m. ET
Miami vs Texas Live Stream:TBS.com

Miami vs Texas Betting Lines

Betting Odds Calculator

Miami vs Texas Picks & Prediction

No matter what, we are getting a fantastic story on Sunday. Miami will make its first Final Four, or Texas will be one step closer to a national championship with interim coach Terry. Disu’s injury is certainly something to watch. However, the Longhorns managed fine on Friday. Forward Christian Bishop (6.5 points and 3.7 rebounds) had 18 points and nine rebounds. The Canes also play a small lineup with 6-foot-7 Norchad Omier (13.3 points and 10.1 rebounds) manning the center position.

Miami’s run has been fun to watch. However, this is where the best teams separate themselves. The Canes rank 104th in Kenpom’s defensive efficiency, while Texas is 10th. The Longhorns are the more complete team, but Miami’s 3-point shooting will be a challenge. Packshot seven of 10 from deep against Houston, and Texas is 88th in opponent 3-point percentage. Texas will sneak by with a win, but look for the Canes to cover NCAA basketball lines’ 4½-point spread.

Texas is listed at -195 in our Las Vegas college basketball lines. This means that if you wager $100 on the Longhorns, you have a chance to win $51. Miami is +165, offering a chance to win $165 on a $100 wager.

The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Texas a 66.10% chance to win, with the Hurricanes at 37.74%.

BET THIS PICK: Miami +4½