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NC State ATS Pick vs Purdue in March Madness Final Four

The NCAA Tournament matchup between the 7-foot-4 Zach Edey and the 6-9, 275-pound DJ Burns will be worth the price of admission as Purdue squares off with surprising North Carolina State in the first national semifinal on Saturday. The March Madness latest lines list Purdue as the favorite as the Boilermakers look to reach the national title game for the first time since 1969.

This will be the first March Madness matchup between the Wolfpack and Purdue. NC State won the first four meetings with Purdue while the Boilermakers won the last two games.

NC State ATS Pick vs Purdue in March Madness Final Four
NC State ATS Pick vs Purdue in March Madness Final Four

Purdue and North Carolina State have met just once in the last nine seasons, with the Boilermakers winning 82-72 in overtime as a 15-point favorite at Barclays Center on Dec. 12, 2021.

The college basketball betting lines list the Boilermakers as a 9-point favorite.

When looking at college basketball futures odds, Purdue is second at +200 in the odds to win March Madness with North Carolina State tied for third at +1600 in the championship odds.


Game Information

  • Game: North Carolina State (26-14) vs Purdue (33-4)
  • Date/Time: Saturday, April 6, 6:09 p.m. ET
  • Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
  • North Carolina State vs Purdue Live Stream: TBS.com


Purdue has won 26 of its last 30 neutral-site games and is 18-11-1 against the spread in those games. North Carolina State is 15-9 in its last 24 games on neutral courts but has covered in just 13 of those matchups.

Purdue is priced at -420 to win the game outright while the Wolfpack is +330 in our sportsbook odds.


The Wolfpack and Boilermakers meet on Saturday, April 6, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ. You can watch the game on TBS at 6:09 p.m. ET.

North Carolina State vs Purdue Odds and Spreads




  • Purdue is 31-4 as a favorite this season.
  • North Carolina State has won just nine of 19 games as the underdog.
  • Purdue is 8-2-1 against the spread in neutral-site games.
  • Just four of North Carolina State’s 12 games on neutral courts finished under the total.
  • NC State is 7-1 against the Las Vegas odds in its last eight games.
  • Six of the Wolfpack’s last seven games against Big Ten teams against Big Ten teams.
  • The total landed under in four of Purdue’s last six games.
  • Purdue is 4-1 ATS over the last five games.


ATS Prediction: NC State +9 (-110)

North Carolina State has covered in each of its last seven games as an underdog while Purdue is 4-2 ATS as the favorite so something will have to give.

This is a totally different NC State team than the one that lost back-to-back games to BYU and Ole Miss, but the Wolfpack had issues at times defending on the perimeter. Opponents connected on at least nine 3-pointers in six of the losses by the Wolfpack.

This NC State team just seems to find a way to hang around so, while it might be tough to take down Purdue, NC State could cover as a nine-point underdog.



Over/Under Pick: Under 146 (-110)

It might be hard to find teams offering a more diverse style of play so it will be interesting to see how favored Purdue handles things in its first Final Four game since 1980.

Purdue has a pretty good track record in neutral-site games and this feels like a game that could turn into a defensive slugfest. When making March Madness over/under predictions, don’t expect Purdue to shoot 3-for-15 from 3-point range, as the Boilermakers did against Tennessee. Perhaps some of those struggles were a result of focusing on slowing down Tennessee star Dalton Knecht.

North Carolina State’s depth could be tested with guard Dennis Parker and LJ Thomas both set to miss this game.



Player Prop Pick: Braden Smith to have 12+ Points (-109)

Braden Smith is proving to be more than just a threat from the 3-point line. In the four NCAA Tournament games, the sophomore has 38 assists compared to just eight turnovers. Much of that can be attributed to getting the ball to Edey in the low post.

He figures to pile up the assists again, but he will need to look for his own shot as well so take a look at the -109 odds for Smith to score at least 12 points against North Carolina State.

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Score Prediction

Purdue 74, North Carolina State 67



Questions of the Day

Which team has a better record against the spread in the Final Four matchup between NC State and Purdue?

Purdue is 20-15-2 against the spread this season with North Carolina State 20-19-1 ATS heading into the first of Saturday’s two national semifinals.

What were the odds of winning the national title for North Carolina State and Purdue heading into the 2023-24 season?

Purdue had the best odds of +850 of winning March Madness coming into the season while North Carolina State was well back at +15000.

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