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NCAA Midwest First Four: Mississippi State vs Pittsburgh Prediction, Game Preview, Live Stream, Odds and Picks
Fireworks in the First Four?
The Pittsburgh Panthers (22-11) and the Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12) can take a sigh of relief – they’re in. Both teams were one of the last four teams in and will battle on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio. This looks like the best NCAA First Four matchup, making it an intriguing sports bet.
Pittsburgh is 1-3 and 2-2 against the spread (ATS) over the last four games. Mississippi State is 2-2 and 0-4 ATS in the last four. Which team will earn its spot in the Round of 64 in the Midwest Region to take on the No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones on Thursday?
Pittsburgh on the Prowl from Deep
Following an embarrassing 96-69 loss against Duke in the ACC Tournament, Pittsburgh was fortunate to get into the Big Dance. The Panthers were one of the lowest teams in the NCAA’s NET Rankings to make the NCAA Tournament. According to college basketball odds, Pittsburgh is an underdog for Tuesday’s game. In the last five games as underdogs, it is 3-2 ATS.
The Panthers’ high-flying offense, which ranks 24th in Kenpom’s efficiency, will have a tough challenge against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are sixth in Kenpom’s defensive efficiency and ninth in allowed points per game.
When Pittsburgh covers NCAA basketball odds, it’s usually led by 3-point shooting. For example, it went 7 of 16 (44%) from deep in its last win compared to 5 of 18 (28%) in the loss against Duke. The Panthers rank in the 92nd percentile of made and attempted 3-pointers per game. Three starting guards average at least 10 points, led by Jamarius Burton at 15.6 points per game.
JAMARIUS BURTON 21 points to lead @Pitt_MBB in ACC Tournament. @JamariusBurton 1st Team All ACC selection @TeamLoadedBBall @teamloadednc #BIGSHOTS pic.twitter.com/E62UH0WTXl
— BIG SH🏀TS (@BigShotsGlobal) March 9, 2023
Mississippi St. Dealing with Shooting Struggles
The Bulldogs did not make a run in the SEC Tournament, as they hoped. After a 72-49 loss to Alabama, this made it a close call for Mississippi State. However, it should not be too upset with its matchup against Pittsburgh.
The defense stops exactly what Pittsburgh leans on – 3-pointers. The Bulldogs rank in the top 10% of allowed 3-point percentage. Plus, Mississippi State has the chance to gain extra possessions against the Panthers. It ranks eighth in offensive rebounding percentage while Pittsburgh is 188th in defensive rebounding percentage. If a team can stop the 3-pointer and outrebound its opponent, most College basketball odds will hit.
However, the Bulldogs’ offense could be a problem. They shot under 40% from the field in the previous two games. Second-leading scorer Shakeel Moore (9.6 points) shot a combined 5 of 22 over the last two games. While Pittsburgh ranks 142nd in defensive efficiency, Mississippi State could lack the tools to take advantage of the weakness. Now, let’s make our online gambling predictions.
Mississippi St. vs Pittsburgh Game Injuries
Mississippi St. vs Pittsburgh Head-to-Head
Pittsburgh and Mississippi State have one all-time meeting. The two met in the 2001 NIT with the Bulldogs winning 66-61.
Mississippi St. vs Pittsburgh Game Information
- Game: Pittsburgh (22-11) vs MS State (21-12)
- Location: UD Arena, Dayton, OH
- Day/Time: Tuesday, March 14, 9:10 p.m. ET
- Pittsburgh vs MS State Live stream: TBS.com
Mississippi St. vs Pittsburgh Betting Lines
Mississippi St. vs Pittsburgh Picks and Prediction
College basketball lines nearly have this matchup as a pick ‘em with Mississippi State favored by 1½ points. The Panthers’ offense against the Bulldogs’ defense figures to be an intense battle featuring two top-25 units. However, this matchup will likely be decided by the weak units – Pittsburgh’s defense and Mississippi State’s offense.
Keep an eye on Bulldog forward Tolu Smith. He leads MSU at 15.8 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Smith has been on a tear, averaging 24 points and 11.3 rebounds in the last three. The Panthers are a weak rebounding team and rank 98th in opponent 2-point percentage. Look for Mississippi State’s Smith to lead the way to a win and cover.
Mississippi State is listed at -125 in our Las Vegas college basketball lines. This means that if you wager $100 on the Bulldogs, you have a chance to win $80. Pittsburgh is +105, offering a chance to win $105 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Mississippi State a 55.56% chance to win, with the Panthers at 48.78%.
