Stars Are Out for Second-Round Showdown
No. 4 Indiana (23-11) and No. 5 Miami (26-7) were popular first-round upset picks, as college basketball lines had both as slight favorites. The Hoosiers and Hurricanes responded by covering the spreads, advancing to the second round.
Sunday’s Round of 32 matchups between Indiana and Miami figures to be a heavy-weight battle. The sportsbook views the game as a near toss-up with the Hoosiers favored by 1½ points. There will be no lack of star power as the Hoosiers are led by First Team All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis and the Canes are led by ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong. Which star player will lead their team to a Sweet 16 berth?
Indiana’s Backcourt Must Rise To Challenge
Indiana was not playing bad basketball before the NCAA Tournament. The Hoosiers went 2-1 before the tournament, including a four-point loss against red-hot Penn State. Many have the tendency to get too cute with March Madness picks, including myself. Indiana controlled the 71-60 win against No. 13 Kent State from start to finish.
Now, the Hoosiers seek their first Sweet 16 since 2016. Stopping Miami’s offense, which ranks 12th in efficiency, will be the toughest challenge. The Hurricanes feature one of the nation’s top backcourts with Wong (15.8 points), Jordan Miller (15 points), and Nijel Pack (13.4 points).
Indiana will need better guard play on Sunday. Freshman Jalen Hood-Schifino (13.3 points) shot only 4 of 11 with eight points in the first round. Plus, Trey Galloway (6.6 points) posted only two points. For a deep run, Hood-Schifino must become a consistent go-to scorer. Since a monster 35-point showing on Feb. 26, he is averaging 11.8 points in the last five games.
Guards Drive Miami to Win
Despite making the Elite Eight last season, Miami is not a popular pick to repeat a deep run. In fact, NCAA basketball odds have the Hurricanes making the Elite Eight at +550, which is lower than Indiana at +300.
With Miami’s guard play, anything is possible. The Canes shot only 30.4% against No. 12 Drake, which shot 40% from the field. Miami came out on top thanks to shooting 23 of 29 from the free-throw line. Miller was instrumental in the win, providing exceptional defense against Drake’s leading scorer Tucker DeVries (18.6 points). Miller will draw another key matchup against Hoosiers guard Hood-Schifino.
This is simply outstanding defense from Jordan Miller. If he can shoot 36% or better from the corner he will get NBA pt. pic.twitter.com/8YN8K9dxAy
— Grant Mitchell (@milemitchell) March 18, 2023
Furthermore, Pack was clutch down the stretch with 21 points. This is what makes this backcourt so good. Wong, the leading scorer, can post only five points and his counterparts step up to the plate. Excellent guard play usually leads to success in March, making the Hurricanes an enticing online gambling pick. Look for big games from Wong and Pack, as both shoot better than 37% from three and Indiana ranks 215th with 7.5 allowed 3-pointers per game.
Indiana vs Miami Game Injuries
Indiana vs Miami Head-to-Head
These programs have only met once, which Miami won in 2001.
Indiana vs Miami Game Information
- Game: No. 4 Indiana (23-11) vs. No. 5 Miami (26-7)
- Location: MVP Arena, Albany, NY
- Day/Time: Sunday, March 19, 8:40 p.m. ET
- Indiana vs Miami Live Stream: TBS.com
Indiana vs Miami Betting Lines
Indiana vs Miami Picks and Prediction
College basketball odds favor Indiana in this one at -125 on the moneyline. However, I think this is a great matchup for Miami. The Hoosiers’ backcourt has been a concern for most of the season. Hood-Schifino has been brilliant at times, but the Hurricanes’ Miller can slow the freshman guard. Plus, forward Norchad Omier (13.6 points and 9.8 rebounds) provides enough size to put up a fight against Indiana’s Jackson-Davis (20.9 points and 10.9 rebounds).
This should be an electric matchup with both teams ranking in the top 25 in Kenpom’s offensive efficiency. Ultimately, the Canes’ guards will win the day, especially with the Hoosiers’ suspect perimeter defense.
Indiana is listed at -125 in our college basketball lines. This means that if you wager $100 on the Hoosiers, you have a chance to win $80. Miami is +105, offering a chance to win $105 on a $100 wager. The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Indiana a 55.56% chance to win, with the Hurricanes at 48.78%.