Saint Mary’s to Cover Spread vs Grand Canyon
The No. 5 vs. 12 seed matchup in the West Region of the 2024 NCAA Tournament could be an exciting game between two teams that won their conference regular season and tournament. That makes this game between Saint Mary’s and Grand Canyon difficult for March Madness expert picks.
In the Western Athletic Conference, the Lopes handled their business as the top team, beating UT Arlington 89-74 to secure the regular season and tournament championship. Similarly, as the top seed in the West Coast Conference, Saint Mary’s won against their biggest competition in the championship game, beating Gonzaga 69-60.
Game Information
- Game: Grand Canyon (29-4) vs. Saint Mary’s (26-7)
- Location: Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena, Spokane, WA
- Day/Time: Friday, March 22, 10:05 p.m. ET
- Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary’s Live Stream: TBS.com
This is undoubtedly a game that could cause some headaches for people making March Madness brackets. Grand Canyon feels like a team that could play spoiler for an opponent and make a Cinderella run. However, being matched against a very good and battle-tested Saint Mary’s team makes this a tough pick.
Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary’s Odds and Spreads
Betting Trends
- Gaels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.
- Over is 15-2-1 in Antelopes last 18 neutral site games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Gaels last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Gaels last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.
- Over is 4-1 in Antelopes last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.
- Antelopes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
- Gaels are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
- Gaels are 0-2-2 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater.
ATS Pick: Saint Mary’s -5½
Going with Saint Mary’s to cover the college basketball spread does not diminish the problems Grand Canyon can cause. Saint Mary’s might cover the spread late despite the game being tight throughout, which is a testament to Grand Canyon.
What separates the two teams is Saint Mary’s utter dominance over its conference and its success ATS. The Gaels went 15-1 through conference play, with that only loss happening in the final game of the regular season against Gonzaga. However, they had already secured the regular-season title and avenged that loss by beating Gonzaga in the conference championship game.
“You know who’s a surprise to me? Saint Mary’s. … They were dominant in their Championship game in the West Coast Conference.”
—@CoachJayWright thinks @saintmaryshoops could make it to the second weekend of March Madness pic.twitter.com/JNDQKxqDIE
— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) March 16, 2024
Saint Mary’s did not need to beat Gonzaga, having already done so on the road early in the season. That led to a subpar performance in the last game before the conference tournament, which snapped a 16-game winning streak. However, when it did matter, the Gaels beat Gonzaga, even when college basketball lines had them as the underdog by three points, winning by nine.
Grand Canyon will keep the game close but fall short of covering. Saint Mary’s is set up to play grind-it-out, slow games and can pull away at the right time. The Gaels are going to be able to control the pace, even though it might seem close, which should allow them to cover.
Over/Under Pick: Over 131½
Even with this being a grind-out game, college basketball picks could lean toward the over. Considering betting lines, this is another difficult decision because both teams had great defenses in conference play. Grand Canyon (65.7) and Saint Mary’s (58.4) each allowed the fewest points per game against conference opponents.
However, even with that, this game’s over/under line has been set too low. Grand Canyon knows it will need to score to keep up with Saint Mary’s, which could force both teams toward the over. Even with two solid defenses and how close this game could be late, there will be enough scoring to get past a low line set for the over/under.
Player Prop Pick: Aidan Mahaney Over 14.5 points (-110)
There has not been a clear offensive leader for Saint Mary’s this season, with five players averaging double-digit points per game but no one over 14. However, Aidan Mahaney has been the primary offensive leader, leading the team in points per game in the season and during conference play. That was made clear when he scored 23 points in the win over Gonzaga in the conference championship game. Mahaney could be in for another big game against Grand Canyon, with Saint Mary’s needing him to score.
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Prediction
Saint Mary’s 70, Grand Canyon 64
Questions Of The Day
Does Grand Canyon have a legitimate chance to upset Saint Mary's?
Both teams dominated their respective conferences, which opens the door for an upset by Grand Canyon, but Saint Mary’s has been too reliable this season to let that happen.
What would a NCAA tournament mean for Saint Mary's?
After an excellent season for Saint Mary’s, an NCAAB Tournament win would be the cherry on top, and the team has the talent to make a significant run.
