San Diego State vs Charleston Prediction, Game Preview, Live Stream, Odds and Picks

Hot teams Collide in South Region

· Mar 14 - 5 minutes read

Will No. 5 Aztecs Fall Prey To The 12-5 Upset?

The No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs won 27 games this season to claim their seventh Mountain West title. They’ll enter the NCAA Tournament on a roll as they’ve won four in a row and 10 of their last 11.

Meanwhile, No. 12 Charleston Cougars ended the regular season with a 31-3 record. They haven’t lost since February 2. Which of these teams is the best bet in the sportsbook to get the win advance?

San Diego Relies On Balance, Depth

The Aztecs had a successful season in the Mountain West and it was mostly due to team balance. They’ve been outscoring opponents by 8.5 points per game while also maintaining a ridiculously high +279 scoring differential.

Those who bet online know that this team doesn’t have a single scorer that really stands out above the rest on this roster. Matt Bradley leads the way at 12.9 points per game but he’s the only player on the roster that is in the double digits.

Seven players on this roster are averaging over six points per game. It seems to work well enough as this team relies on defense to get the job done.

If you’re looking at the college basketball news site KenPom.com, you’ll see that this team is one of the best in the country defensively. They’re 10th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and will have a huge edge in this regard. Only one of their last seven opponents has topped the 66-point mark.

Charleston Dominating Weak Opponents

The Charleston Cougars have been excellent up to this point. Not only are they 31-3, but they also hold a massive +457 scoring differential. They outscored their opponents by an average of 13.4 points per game.

They are averaging the 14th-best points per game total in the nation, scoring 80.8 a night. However, the KenPom Adjusted Offensive Efficiency shows that they’re not quite that hot as they’re 70th in that metric.

Much of the big numbers are due to their excellent three-point output as they score 10.1 threes a night, the ninth-most in the nation. Sports betting handicappers have to decide whether they’ll be able to live from range in this game or the Aztecs will slow them down.

A key to this game will be rebounding and the Cougars are snagging 37.4 boards per game. This is the second most per-game total of any other team in college basketball.

Even if they don’t shoot well in this game, rebounding could be the key to their success. They outrebound opponents by 7.5 each contest.

San Diego St vs Charleston Game Injuries

San Diego St vs Charleston Head-to-Head

These two teams have yet to meet up with one another this season, making this their first meeting.

San Diego St vs Charleston Game Information

Game: San Diego St (27-6) vs Charleston (31-3)
Location: Amway Center, Orlando, FL
Day/Time: Thursday, March 16th, 3:10 p.m. ET
San Diego State vs Charleston Television: TBS.com

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San Diego St vs Charleston Betting Lines

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San Diego St vs Charleston Prediction

San Diego is a 5-point favorite, according to the march madness odds. That mostly amounts to them playing in a better conference.

However, it does feel like Charleston has underdog value here. If they can hit their threes or rebound the misses for extra opportunities, they should keep this close. Take the points with your NCAA vegas odds basketball.

San Diego State is listed at -220 in our Vegas lines. So, if you wager $100 on the Aztecs, there’s a chance to win $45. Charleston is -180 with a chance to win $56 on a $100 wager.

The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives the Aztecs a 68.75% chance to win, with the Cougars at 64.29%.

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BET THIS PICK: Charleston (+5)