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Stetson to Cover Big Spread vs UConn

The road to repeating for the No. 1 overall seed UConn Huskies begins on Friday when they take on Stetson in Brooklyn, N.Y. It is expected that the Huskies will easily handle the Hatters, as the college basketball odds makers have tabbed the defending champs at 26½ -point favorites. Can the Huskies cover the college basketball spread? What are their chances to win back-to-back championships? We will break it all down with our March Madness predictions.

 

Stetson to Cover Big Spread vs UConn
Stetson to Cover Big Spread vs UConn

Game Information

  • Game: Stetson (22-12, 11-5 ASUN) vs UConn (31-3, 18-2 Big East)
  • Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, N.Y.
  • Date/Time: March 22, 2:45 p.m.
  • Stetson vs UConn Live Stream: TBS.com

 

UConn rides into this matchup on a seven-game winning streak, including its first Big East tournament championship since 2011. Stetson, meanwhile, won the ASUN tournament as the three seed. The Huskies will surely have home-court advantage as their fan base will likely travel well from Connecticut to Brooklyn.

 

Stetson vs UConn Odds and Spreads


 

  • The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
  • The under is 5-1 in Hatters’ last 6 games as an underdog.
  • The Hatters are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.
  • The Hatters are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
  • The under is 5-1 in the Hatters’ last 6 games following an ATS loss.
  • The over is 4-1 in the Hatters’ last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.

 

Over/Under Pick: Stetson Team Total Over 59½

While we don’t necessarily believe the Hatters will keep pace with the Huskies, the over/under number of 59½ total points for Stetson seems low. The Hatters are 10th in the nation, scoring 88.3 points per contest. They have reached 80 in four of their last five, including all three of their ASUN tournament games. While more fierce than that competition, UConn is not the defensive juggernaut it started the season as. The Huskies sit outside the top-100 in the country, allowing 69 points per game. But Stetson’s defense is on another level of bad, allowing 83 points per game, outside the top-300.

 

The Huskies will surely put points on the board, setting up a blowout with the Hatters potentially benefiting from some garbage-time points. If they are going to reach this number, the Hatters will need first-team All-ASUN performer Jalen Blackmon to perform. The junior averages 21.5 points and is on the heels of a gaudy 43-point showing against Austin Peay in the ASUN Championship. Backcourt mate Stephan Swenson also received all-conference honors, making the second-team. He has been particularly hot of late, eclipsing double figures in his last seven games, including two 29-point efforts.

It may be close, but we think the garbage time will be the factor that allows the Hatters to score at least 60.

 

 

ATS Pick: Stetson +26.5

What has made UConn so dangerous is its ability to beat you in multiple ways. Against Marquette in the Big East championship game, center Donovan Clingan, a rising NBA draft prospect, had a career-high 16 rebounds to go with 22 points. Or the Huskies can beat you from the 3-point line, headlined by Cam Spencer, who has hit four or more threes in four of his last five outings. Then there is first-team All-American Tristen Newton, who leads the team in scoring and rebounding. While too good to be considered a “glue guy,” Newton impacts the game whether he has the basketball or not.

With all this said, the Huskies should be a sure thing to cover the college basketball spread, right? It’s not that simple. Per the BetUS sportsbook, UConn is just 2-3 ATS when facing mid-major opponents this season. While they always got the job done, with authority, they Huskies rarely blew teams out of the water. That was until they entered Big East play. They beat conference opponents to the tune of double digits in 14 of 18 games, with seven of them being by more than 20.

But, as we mentioned, we believe the biggest thing standing in the way of the Huskies covering is garbage time. UConn should have a stranglehold on the game and possibly rest their starters in the late going. That, combined with Stetson’s strong offensive pedigree, will keep the Hatters within the parameters of the college basketball spread.

 

 

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Prediction

UConn 85, Stetson 62

 

 

Questions of the Day

Who is the favorite to win the NCAA Tournament?


UConn is the favorite at +375 odds

Will the over or under hit?


Over 145½ points is a good bet.

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