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ACC March Madness Bubble Watch: North Carolina Making Run for NCAAB Bid

· Feb 24 - 5 minutes read

North Carolina hopes not to have its March Madness bubble burst with a strong finish to the regular season.
Get the best ACC basketball odds at BetUS.
Read on for my March Madness breakdown for ACC teams this week.

If the NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament began today, the ACC would likely be a three-bid league with Duke, Clemson and Louisville representing the conference. That makes for plenty of March Madness bubble teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

ACC March Madness Bubble Watch: North Carolina Making Run for NCAAB Bid — RJ Davis #4 of the North Carolina Tar Heels | Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images/AFP

Duke has a one-game lead on Clemson and Louisville with four games remaining in the regular season. Wake Forest, SMU, North Carolina and Stanford are the only ACC other teams with winning records in conference play. The Tar Heels are back in action on Monday with the BetUS sportsbook listing North Carolina as a 2-point favorite against Florida State.

Duke (+425) is second only behind Auburn in the odds of winning March Madness. No other ACC bubble teams are in the top 50 in the NCAAM championship odds.

Here is the latest bubble watch for ACC teams from BetUS with two weeks left in the regular season.

ACC March Madness Analysis

North Carolina Heads Bubble Teams

Just three years ago, North Carolina reached the March Madness title game in Hubert Davis’ first season at the helm of his alma mater. Per North Carolina vs Florida State stats, the Tar Heels have won three games in a row heading into Monday’s matchup with the Seminoles.

Is it too little, too late for the Tar Heels to receive a spot in the March Madness bracket without having to win the ACC tournament?

#UNC can match its longest winning streak of the season Monday night at Florida State. Leonard Hamilton’s Seminoles, who lead the ACC in blocked shots and steals, again feature length galore.

Preview from @evanr0gers on the matchup in Tallahassee: https://t.co/iECbIz3SwI pic.twitter.com/oqm98Gd4DG

— InsideCarolina (@InsideCarolina) February 24, 2025

North Carolina is just 1-6 against ranked teams this season. Two of the next three games come against teams with losing records before the regular-season finale against No. 3 Duke. With a 1-10 record in Quad 1 games, North Carolina is just 45th in the NCAA NET rankings.

Wake Forest and SMU are both a game ahead of North Carolina in the ACC standings.

SMU is 39th in the NCAA NET rankings with 15 of the 20 wins for the Mustangs coming against Quad 3 or Quad 4 teams. Wake Forest is sitting behind San Francisco and Colorado State in the NCAA NET rankings.

The college basketball odds had North Carolina tied for the seventh shortest odds of winning March Madness when the season began. The underachieving Tar Heels have seen their championship odds move from +2000 to +30000.

Duke on Course for No. 1 Seed in March Madness

Duke is looking good to be a No. 1 seed in the March Madness bracket. The Blue Devils made quite the statement with a 110-67 win over Illinois at Madison Square Garden to extend their winning streak to four games.

Duke might not face a ranked team again until the ACC tournament final. However, if the Blue Devils win out, they will be a No. 1 seed despite just two wins over ranked teams this season.

With freshman star Cooper Flagg leading the way, there should be plenty of hype surrounding Duke over the next few weeks. Flagg will remain a popular betting option in NCAAB player prop picks.

“He’s the best player in the country… Cooper Flagg is generational.”

UCLA coach Mick Cronin with high praise for the Duke guard pic.twitter.com/sjUieSllkM

— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) February 23, 2025

Duke’s last loss came to Clemson, which is inching closer to a top-20 spot in the NCAA NET rankings. Despite two Quad 2 losses and a Quad 3 loss, Clemson is currently at No. 22 and should be favored by the NCAAB betting lines in the rest of its games during the regular season.

With five wins in a row, Louisville has the longest active winning streak in the ACC. The win over Clemson earlier this season has Louisville in the driver’s seat to be the No. 2 seed in the ACC tournament.

A 4-4 record in Quad 1 games is one reason Louisville is only at No. 24 in the NCAA NET rankings. Per college basketball news, the latest CBS bracketology has Clemson as a No. 6 seed and Louisville as a No. 7 seed in the field of 68.

The college basketball odds have Clemson at +8000 and Louisville at +10000 in the odds of winning March Madness.

Did Bubble Burst for Pitt?

Pittsburgh is just 2-5 in its last seven games after losing at Notre Dame, per college basketball betting trends. That defeat saw the Panthers fall from No. 51 to No. 55 in the NCAA NET rankings. A losing record in conference play in a week ACC will not help the Panthers. A 1-8 mark in Quad 1 games and a 3-7 road record could have the Panthers headed to the NIT.

Stanford is just 85th in the NCAA NET rankings followed by No. 88 Florida State and No. 100 Notre Dame. It is hard to imagine any of those teams being on the March Madness radar without earning an automatic bid by winning the ACC tournament.

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.