ACC March Madness Bubble Watch: Will Surge by North Carolina Earn Bid?

· Mar 04 - 5 minutes read

North Carolina hopes not to have its March Madness bubble burst with a strong finish to the regular season.
Get the best ACC basketball odds at BetUS.
Read on for my March Madness breakdown for ACC teams this week.

The rich continue to get richer in the ACC with four of the top five teams in the conference standings currently riding at least five-game winning streaks, per NCAAB betting trends.

ACC March Madness Bubble Watch: Will Surge by North Carolina Earn Bid? — Armando Bacot #5 of the North Carolina Tar Heels | Jared C. Tilton/getty Images/afp

The latest March Madness bracket projections have Duke, Clemson and Louisville as the only ACC teams in the field of 68. There are some bubble teams worth keeping an eye on with the regular season coming to an end on Saturday.

Duke has a one-game lead on Clemson and Louisville in the ACC standings. All that is left for Duke is a game at North Carolina after a dominant win over Wake Forest on Monday. Wake Forest, SMU, North Carolina and Stanford are the only ACC other teams with winning records in conference play. The BetUS sportsbook has North Carolina and SMU as favorites on Tuesday.

Duke (+350) is second only behind Auburn in the odds of winning March Madness. Clemson (+6500) and Louisville (+10000) are the other top ACC teams in the championship odds.

Here is the latest bubble watch for ACC teams from BetUS with the ACC tournament right around the corner.

ACC March Madness Analysis

Surging North Carolina Making Late Big for NCAA Berth

It has been more than 20 years since North Carolina missed the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back seasons. With a five-game winning streak, the Tar Heels are showing up on the “First Four Out” teams by some bracketologists.

A win over Virginia Tech on Tuesday won’t do much to move North Carolina up from No. 43 in the NCAA NET rankings. However, if the Tar Heels can win at home against Duke on Saturday, that might be enough for North Carolina to be in the projected March Madness bracket.

The Tar Heels lost the first meeting this season by 17 points, but won the previous two regular-season matchups vs the Blue Devils, per Duke vs North Carolina stats.

Last road trip of the season.

🆚 Virginia Tech
🕖 7 PM ET
📍 Blacksburg, VA
📺 ESPNU pic.twitter.com/lEYF5W96KT

— Carolina Basketball (@UNC_Basketball) March 4, 2025

SMU is at No. 41 in the NCAA NET rankings, one spot ahead of North Carolina. The Mustangs and the Tar Heels are a combined 1-15 in Quad 1 games. Three Quad 2 losses will hurt SMU’s chances of making it into the March Madness bracket. It doesn’t help that 16 of the 21 wins for the Mustangs have come in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games.

Wake Forest was tied with North Carolina and SMU for fourth place in the ACC standings before the loss to Duke. The Demon Deacons have dropped four of their last six games.

Wake Forest is just 72nd in the NCAA NET rankings and even wins over North Carolina and SMU will not be enough for the Demon Deacons.

The college basketball odds had North Carolina tied for the seventh shortest NCAAB futures championship odds when the season began. The Tar Heels have seen their championship odds move from +2000 to +40000.

Duke Lays Claim to March Madness No. 1 Seed

Duke has been battling it out with Auburn for the top spot in the NCAA NET rankings so barring an early exit in the ACC tournament, the Blue Devils figure to be a No. 1 seed when the March Madness bracket is finalized.

The six Quad 1 wins pales in comparison to some other teams fighting for No. 1 seeds but with two of the three losses coming in November, the Blue Devils will benefit by taking care of business in a weak ACC.

7 STRAIGHT WINS FOR THE BLUE DEVILS 😈

No. 2 Duke blows past Wake Forest for yet another dominant victory 💪 pic.twitter.com/lgYHu2rlMD

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 4, 2025

Clemson is 21st and Louisville is 24th in the NCAA NET rankings. If not for a loss at Georgia Tech, Louisville would take an 18-game winning streak into Wednesday’s matchup with California.

Louisville beat Clemson during the regular season so that could give the Cardinals the No. 2 seed in the ACC tournament.

Clemson handed Duke its lone ACC loss and that is a result that could help the Tigers land a higher March Madness seed than Louisville.

500 Mark in ACC Play Not Enough for Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech is 9-9 in the ACC and it feels like a case of what might have been with its top 11 scorers combining to miss 95 games this season. An 0-6 record in Quad 2 games is one reason why Georgia Tech is outside the top 100 in the NCAA NET rankings.

No. 59 Pittsburgh, No. 83 Stanford, No. 89 Florida State and No. 102 Virginia are all ahead of Georgia Tech in the NCAA NET rankings. However, it will take an improbable ACC tournament title run for any of those teams to earn a spot in the March Madness bracket.