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ACC March Madness Update: Bubble Teams on Alert

Is this the year when rivals North Carolina and Duke meet in the ACC championship game for the first time since 2011? Both of those teams need to tread carefully because most of the field in the ACC tournament should be approaching that event as a win-or-else scenario when it comes to their March Madness odds.

The ACC tournament begins on Tuesday with Georgia Tech playing Notre Dame. That is followed by the Louisville-North Carolina State game and then Miami, which reached the Final Four of the 2023 NCAA Tournament, meets up with Boston College six days after falling to the Eagles at home. The ACC tournament is being played at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.

ACC March Madness Update: Bubble Teams on Alert
Tyrese Proctor #5 of the Duke Blue Devils | Lance King/Getty Images/AFP

There are seven teams with winning records in ACC play but only Duke and North Carolina are in the Top 25 in the national polls. That is something to consider when it comes to the March Madness predictions.

When looking at the college basketball futures odds, North Carolina leads the ACC and is sixth nationally at +1800 in the odds of winning the national championship. Duke is next among ACC squads at +2500.

Big Dance-Bound

North Carolina is showing up as a No. 2 seed and Duke as a No. 3 seed in the projected March Madness brackets. Will that be the case when the NCAA Tournament field is announced?

North Carolina helped its cause by sweeping the season series against Duke to win the outright regular-season title in the ACC.

The Tar Heels are seventh in the NCAA NET rankings with 12 of the 25 wins coming in Quad 3 or Quad 4 games. A 5-2 record against ranked teams should impress the NCAA Selection Committee. Duke is 10th in the NCAA NET rankings and a 5-4 record in Quad 1 games could serve as a detriment when the March Madness bracket is finalized.

Clemson is 26th in the NCAA NET rankings and that should be enough to get the Tigers into the NCAA Tournament. However, a recent loss to Notre Dame is pretty hard to explain.

On the Bubble

Wake Forest has dropped to No. 38 in the NCAA NET rankings so the Demon Deacons might need a strong showing in the ACC tournament. are starting to be removed from the projected brackets. Wake Forest is currently seventh in the ACC standings. A 2-5 record in Quad 1 games could be a problem while a 6-6 mark in Quad 2 games should be even more concerning.

Virginia is the No. 3 seed in the ACC tournament with a 13-7 conference record. The Cavaliers’ 8-11 record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games, will be an issue. The Cavaliers are sitting 51st in the NCAA NET rankings and they did not look worthy of a spot in the tournament in a recent 25-point loss at Duke.

Even with three straight wins, Virginia Tech is 10-10 in the ACC. Four Quad 2 losses and a 3-8 record in Quad 1 contests leave the Hokies with some work to do.

Pittsburgh was tied for the seventh-best odds to win the ACC when the season began according to the BetUS sportsbook. The Panthers earned the No. 4 seed in the ACC tournament. A pair of wins over ranked teams helps but a 7-8 record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games, as well as a pair of Quad 3 losses, could leave the Panthers out of the tournament field.

Wait ‘Til Next Year

Syracuse and North Carolina State are 79th and 80th in the NCAA NET rankings. They are a combined 1-8 against ranked teams and 3-16 in Quad 1 games. Perhaps they can defy the college basketball odds and make a run in the ACC tournament.

Expectations were high for a Miami team that returned four of the top six scorers from a team that advanced to the Final Four and added high-profile transfer Matthew Cleveland. However, Miami has a losing record and will have to win five games in five days to return to the NCAA tournament.

No. 95 Florida State and No. 96 Boston College are a combined 2-13 in Quad 1 games.

Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Louisville are a combined 18-42 in ACC play this season. Georgia Tech does have three wins over ranked teams.



Questions Of The Day

Which ACC teams have the best record against the spread against ranked teams this season?

North Carolina is 6-2 against the spread when facing teams in the Top 25 in the national polls this season while Georgia Tech has covered in each of its four games versus ranked teams.

Which ACC team has the best odds to reach the Final Four?

North Carolina leads the way at +400 in the odds of being in the Final Four followed by Duke at +550.

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