ACC March Madness Update: Virginia Can Boost Odds vs Duke

The ACC could be limited to five teams in the field of 68 and it is not looking good for the conference to have a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

There are nine teams with winning records in ACC play but only Duke and North Carolina are in the Top 25 in the national polls. That is something to consider when it comes to the March Madness predictions.

When looking at the college basketball futures odds, North Carolina is tied for sixth at +1800 and has the best odds of winning the national championship among ACC teams. Duke is next among ACC squads at +2500.

Here’s a look at the NCAA basketball Tournament hopes for the ACC teams with just two weeks to go in the regular season.

Big Dance-Bound

It isn’t a question of whether North Carolina and Duke will earn NCAA Tournament bids but where they will be seeded. The Vegas March Madness odds have them as the teams to beat in the ACC title race and the regular-season finale between the rivals will possibly determine the No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament.

North Carolina leads Duke by one game in the ACC standings. The Tar Heels welcome rival North Carolina State to town on Saturday while Duke has a home date with Virginia.

The team’s star players made news in different ways over the last week. RJ Davis set a Dean Smith Center record with 42 points in a win over Miami while Duke’s Kyle Filipowski overcame an injury scare after a collision with Wake Forest fans storming the court to play 29 minutes in a win over Louisville.

The Tar Heels are ninth in the NCAA NET rankings while Duke moved from 11th to 13th so it is not looking good to have an ACC team be a No. 1 seed in the March Madness bracket.

Clemson and Wake Forest are in the top 30 in the NCAA NET rankings. Wake Forest’s 1-5 record in Quad 1 games and 0-3 mark versus teams in the Top 25 in the national polls won’t help the Demon Deacons’ seeding when the tournament field is announced. Clemson is 5-3 in Quad 1 games but two Quad 3 losses will come into play when the tournament field is finalized.

Final from Cameron #DukeDub pic.twitter.com/f5H7nejnMG

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) February 29, 2024

Virginia was briefly ranked in the national polls. The Cavaliers are sitting alone in third in the ACC standings but the other numbers, including a 7-8 record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games, are going to be an issue. The Cavaliers are sitting 46th in the NCAA NET rankings so the Cavaliers could still play their way out of the field of 68.

On the Bubble

Virginia Tech didn’t help itself with double-digit road losses to Pittsburgh and Syracuse to fall to 7-10 in the ACC and 1-9 on the road. The 3-8 record in Quad 1 games is also a problem. Saturday’s game against Wake Forest is huge since the final two contests for the Hokies are against teams with losing records.

Pittsburgh was tied for the seventh-best odds to win the ACC when the season began and the Panthers are a game out of fourth place heading into the weekend. A pair of wins over ranked teams helps but a 5-8 record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games as well as a pair of Quad 3 losses has the Panthers with some work left to be done.

Wait ‘Til Next Year

The good news is that North Carolina State did break into the top 80 in the NCAA NET rankings. However, that is not going to be enough to get a March Madness invite unless the Wolfpack wins the ACC tournament.

NC State is just 5-10 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games. Syracuse is 2-7 in Quad 1 games as the Orange are sitting just outside the top 80 in the NCAA NET rankings in the first season in the post-Jim Boeheim era.

No. 91 Miami (2-8 in Quad 1 games, 2-8 on the road) reached the Final Four last season. Perhaps a run to the NIT Final Four is a possibility this year.

No. 90 Florida State and No. 91 Boston College are a combined 3-13 in Quad 1 games.

Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Louisville are a combined 14-37 in ACC play this season.

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