Big 12 March Madness Bubble Watch: BYU in, Baylor on Shaky Ground

· Mar 10 - 4 minutes read

Get the best Big 12 basketball odds at BetUS.
Houston has the shortest odds of winning March Madness among Big 12 teams.
Read on for my March Madness breakdown for Big 12 teams this week.

While the SEC is viewed as the best men’s basketball conference in the country heading into the March Madness bracket, there could be four teams from the Big 12 in position to earn top 16 seeds.

Big 12 March Madness Bubble Watch: BYU in, Baylor on Shaky Ground — Milos Uzan #7 of the Houston Cougars | Alex Slitz/Getty Images/AFP

I’m sorry to report that there won’t be many bubble teams to monitor out of the Big 12. However, at this time of the year, anything is possible.

Cincinnati, one of those bubble teams, opens the Big 12 tournament against Oklahoma State in Tuesday’s NCAA basketball matchups. None of the other teams in action on Tuesday are inside the top 70 in the NCAA NET rankings.

Houston (+800) trails only Duke, Auburn and Florida in the NCAA March Madness odds. Iowa State (+2500) is ninth in the championship odds followed by Texas Tech (+3500) and Arizona (+5000). Houston is at -110 to win the Big 12 tournament.

BetUS takes a look at where the Big 12 teams stand heading into the conference tournament with the champion being crowned on Saturday.

Big 12 March Madness Breakdown

Baylor Could Use 1 More Win to Escape Bubble

With BYU playing its way off the March Madness bubble, the focus turns to West Virginia, Baylor and Cincinnati.

Back in action Wednesday evening in KC#SicEm | #CultureofJOY pic.twitter.com/uDJ72lT48E

— Baylor Men’s Basketball (@BaylorMBB) March 9, 2025

Baylor finished just 10-10 in the Big 12 during the regular season, per NCAAB betting trends. A 3-9 road record and 3-8 mark against ranked teams won’t impress the NCAA selection committee and neither will a 2-4 record over the last six games.

Baylor is sitting 33rd in the NCAA NET rankings, aided by 16 Quad 1 games. However, the Bears lost 11 of those games. I think that the Bears could use at least one more quality win before the March Madness bracket is finalized.

West Virginia has won three of its last four games but a 6-10 record in Quad 1 games has the Mountaineers struggling to stay in the top 50 in the NCAA NET rankings.

It is hard to envision Cincinnati earning a March Madness at-large bid with a 7-13 record in Big 12 play. A 1-11 mark when facing Quad 1 teams and three Quad 2 losses has the Bearcats needing to make a run in the Big 12 tournament. Cincinnati is +15000 in college basketball futures odds to win the Big 12.

Surging Houston in Line for March Madness No. 1 Seed

Houston is the top seed in the Big 12 tournament and is fighting to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament as well.

The OFFICIAL 2025 Phillips 66 Big 12 Men’s Basketball Championship bracket. pic.twitter.com/X61MfbE7VJ

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) March 9, 2025

The Cougars made college basketball news by winning 10 games in a row and proved their toughness by going undefeated on the road.

Texas Tech and Iowa State are also in the top 10 in the NCAA NET rankings. Arizona dropped two of its last three games to fall to No. 13 in the NCAA NET rankings.

Kansas is 5-10 in Quad 1 games as the Jayhawks are 18th in the NCAA NET rankings despite a recent win over Arizona. I would avoid making college basketball picks on the unpredictable Jayhawks.

BYU won its last eight games to finish third in the Big 12 standings. A losing record in Quad 1 games could impact its March Madness seeding, but this is a team playing its best basketball right now.

Can Longshots Utah and TCU Make Big 12 Tournament Run?

Utah, Arizona State and TCU are in the top 75 in the NCAA NET rankings. That is not going to be enough to land at-large bids. All three teams will be in action on Tuesday. They have combined to go 7-15 in Quad 2 games and 11-31 in Quad 1 games. Can any of these teams steal a March Madness bid by winning the Big 12 tournament?