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Big Ten Bubble Watch: Can Ohio State Defy March Madness Odds?
- Get the best Big Ten basketball odds at BetUS.
- Eight Big Ten teams are in the top 30 in the NCAA NET rankings.
- Read on for my March Madness breakdown for Big Ten teams this week
The Big Ten title chase gets more interesting by the week. With back-to-back losses by Purdue, there is a new leader with a red-hot Michigan team sitting atop the Big Ten standings. More movement could be coming with the top six teams separated by just 2½ games.
When making college basketball predictions, keep in mind that Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue and Wisconsin are the only Big Ten teams with winning records on the road.
While no Big Ten teams are in the top 10 in the NCAA NET rankings, seven teams are in the top 25 so there could be plenty of Big Ten representation when the March Madness field is announced.
Purdue and Wisconsin come in at +3000 as they have the shortest odds of winning March Madness among Big Ten teams. Michigan State (+4500), Michigan (+5000), Illinois (+5500), Maryland (+6500) and UCLA (+7000) are far behind in the championship odds.
Michigan (-110) and Purdue (+215) are the teams with the shortest odds of winning the Big Ten title followed by Michigan State (+725), Wisconsin (+900) and Maryland (+1000).
BetUS will keep tabs on the contenders and also teams on the bubble every week until the March Madness bracket is announced.
Big Ten March Madness Breakdown
Ohio State Leads List of Big Ten Bubble Teams
Ohio State is the first of the Big Ten squads to be considered a bubble team.
The Buckeyes have wins against Purdue and Maryland but also have a 3-5 record in games decided by three points or less, per NCAAB betting trends.
A 4-8 record in Quad 1 games could hurt the Buckeyes in their bid to make it into the March Madness field even if they are currently 30th in the NCAA NET rankings. Three Quad 2 losses won’t help.
Buckeye Nation & @TBDBITL showed out ‼️#GoBucks pic.twitter.com/AKU6dMjgUZ
— Ohio State Hoops (@OhioStateHoops) February 16, 2025
Oregon joins Ohio State at 7-8 in Big Ten play. When comparing the two teams, Ohio State has played 11 games against ranked teams compared to six such games for the Ducks.
At 18-8, Oregon is looking good to hit the 20-win mark, and that might not be the case for Ohio State. A 6-6 record in Quad 1 games shows the up-and-down nature of Oregon’s first season in the Big Ten. Oregon does own a win over Alabama. However, dropping six of seven games before posting wins over Rutgers and Northwestern has Oregon very much on the bubble.
Nebraska has defied the college basketball odds with wins over Creighton, UCLA and Illinois. The Huskers join Oregon with six Quad 1 wins. A 5-1 record over the last six games has Nebraska at No. 46 in the NCAA NET rankings.
The Contenders
We don’t envy the NCAA Selection Committee as they try to make sense of things in the Big Ten.
Big Ten leader Michigan has the fifth-best mark in the NCAA NET rankings thanks in large part to three Quad 2 losses. The Wolverines have won six games in a row and that includes a win over Purdue, so Michigan is trending in the right direction.
Another huge road win! This time in Columbus! Brian & Terry recap the 86-83 rivalry victory before talking with Coach May, Roddy, and Danny. Head over to https://t.co/8w3Cl6tlHB and the podcast page for E295: https://t.co/vHPNAlPaFN#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/96AswMjs3I
— Michigan Men’s Basketball (@umichbball) February 17, 2025
The NCAA made college basketball news by releasing its current top 16 seeds in the March Madness bracket a few days ago. Purdue was a No. 2 seed, Wisconsin was a No. 3 seed and Michigan a No. 4 seed.
Purdue is just 6-6 in Quad 1 games and 4-5 against ranked teams. The college basketball betting line has Purdue as a 3.5-point underdog on the road in Tuesday’s matchup with Michigan State. The Boilermakers wrap up February with a home game with UCLA.
No. 12 Wisconsin has the best NCAA NET ranking among the Big Ten teams. However, the Badgers have played just three games against ranked teams. That is the same deal for Michigan State, which 21st in the NCAA NET rankings. Five of the Spartans’ last six games come against ranked teams, per Purdue vs Michigan State Stats.
Despite eight of its 20 wins coming against Quad 4 opponents, Maryland is sitting pretty at No. 14 in the NCAA NET rankings.
Illinois tops the Big Ten contenders with 14 Quad 1 games while UCLA is 8-1 with three top-25 wins in its last nine games.
Bubble has Likely Burst …
Indiana is among the Blue Blood programs that may need to settle for an NIT invitation if the Hoosiers want to keep playing after the Big Ten tournament.
A 2-11 record in Quad 1 games speaks volumes about the type of season it has been in Bloomington. A 1-5 record against ranked teams won’t impress the NCAA selection committee either.
Northwestern is 13-13 and 4-11 in conference play. An 0-8 road record combined with four Quad 2 losses has the Wildcats looking merely to finish the season with a winning record rather than eyeing a spot in the NCAA tournament.
Iowa is 0-10 in Quad 1 games. Enough said. USC is 5-3 in Quad 2 and Quad 3 games and that’s not the winning formula for online betting.
Check Out Last Week’s Big Ten March Madness Bubble Teams Stats
Questions of the Day
Which Big Ten team has the best record against the spread?
Wisconsin is 17-8 against the college basketball spread while Michigan State and UCLA have also covered more than 60% of the time.
How many Big Ten teams played in the 2024 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament?
Six. Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue and Wisconsin were all in the field of 68 with Purdue reaching the title game. Oregon also made the field in its final season in the Pac-12.
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets
