CFP Final: How Historic Line Stacks Up to the Past

The 2022 College Football Playoff National Championship between No. 1 Georgia and No. 3 TCU is one of the most intriguing finals we have seen in years. The Bulldogs, who won their first national title since 1980 last season, are looking to go back-to-back, which would be the first time since Alabama in 2011 and 2012. The Horned Frogs have put together one of the most improbable runs in recent history. We rarely see a non-traditional school crash the party.

Following the semifinals, the line for the national championship immediately stood out. Georgia opened as 13.5-point favorites. Since then, the line has dropped to 12 points. Still, this is one of the biggest lines we have seen. Here’s how the line for Georgia vs. TCU compares to national championships since 2014 – the inaugural CFP.

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CFP Final Lines Since 2014

• 2014 CFP Final: Oregon (-6) vs. Ohio State
• 2015 CFP Final: Alabama (-6) vs. Clemson
• 2016 CFP Final: Alabama (-6.5) vs. Clemson
• 2017 CFP Final: Alabama (-3.5) vs. Georgia
• 2018 CFP Final: Alabama (-5) vs. Clemson
• 2019 CFP Final: LSU (-4) vs. Clemson
• 2020 CFP Final: Alabama (-9.5) vs. Ohio State
• 2021 CFP Final: Georgia (-3) vs. Alabama
• 2022 CFP Final: Georgia (-12) vs. TCU

Dawgs Tabbed Largest Favorite in CFP Final History

Georgia is the largest favorite yet in a CFP national championship game. In fact, there were no double-digit favorites from 2014 to 2021. Alabama as 9.5-point favorites against Ohio State in the 2020 National Championship is the second-largest line, which the Crimson Tide won 52-24.

From 2014 to 2016, three finals had 6 or 6.5-point lines. In every game, the underdog covered and two of three won outright. That’s something to keep in mind when betting on Monday’s game.

In the final two years of the BCS era, Florida State was an 11.5-point favorite against Auburn in the 2013 National Championship, and Alabama was a 10-point favorite against Notre Dame in the 2012 National Championship. The Seminoles did not cover with a come-from-behind 34-31 win, and the Crimson Tide emphatically covered with a 42-14 win.
Since 1998, Georgia is the biggest favorite we have seen in a national championship. Florida State in 2013 is the only team close, and that game went down as a classic. The lesson is big underdogs usually put up a fight. Two of the last four double-digit dogs won outright, and Alabama in 2012 was the only major favorite to cover.